Mortgage Rates



The backing and filling is continuing to day in early activity; the 10 yr note is improving as are mortgage prices while the stock indexes are opening lower. The 10 yr yield has ranged from a high of 1.68% and a low of 1.57% over the last three weeks, mortgage rates have ranged just 6 basis points in rate on 30 yr mortgages in the same time frame. The Fed has revised its economic growth outlook lower for the first time since last November, mostly based on the decline in Europe’s economy. On Thursday and Friday there is an EU summit meeting that isn’t likely to resolve much; meeting upon meeting over the last two years has not accomplished anything of significance for the long run; just putting out brush fires. This time should be no different as Germany remains opposed to a plan that would set up deposit insurance fund to protect all depositors against failures. Germany stands opposed to any plan that allows individual states to set their own austerity targets.

Billionaire investor George Soros called on Europe to start a fund to buy Italian and Spanish bonds, warning that a failure by leaders meeting on June 28 to produce drastic measures could spell the demise of the currency. German Chancellor Angela Merkel said in a June 15 speech that she opposed “premature” proposals for issuing euro-area bonds. Spain formally requested a bailout for its banks as it negotiated details of the aid. A few weeks ago Soros commented the EU had 90 days to work out a solution before the euro currency would collapse. Europe’s debt crisis is putting pressure on corporate earnings globally with companies cutting forecasts and signaling profits will fall at more companies this year.

Early this morning the 10 yr note traded up 18/32 at 1.61% and 30 yr FNMAs were up as much as 8/32 (.25 bp), by 9:30 the 10 was up 14/32 and 30 yr Fannie up 4/32 (.12 bp). The DJIA opened -90, NASDAQ -33; the 10 yr up 16/32 at 1.62% -5 bp and 30 yr MBS prices +6/32 (.18 bp). Markets expecting the Supreme Court decision sometime today; talk that the ruling would be announced at 10:00.

At 10:00 May new home sales were expected to be up 2.0% frm April; as reported sales jumped 7.6% to 369K units (annualized); April sales however were revised lower, from +3.3% to -1.2%. Based on the sales pace there is a dwindling supply, 4.7 months down from 5 months in April. The median sales price at $234,500 up 5.6% yr/yr. Sales total was the largest since April 2010; the 4.7 month supply is the lowest since Oct 2005. There was no initial reaction to the report in the stock or bond markets.

This week has Treasury selling $99B of notes Tuesday through Thursday. There are a number of key data points; May consumer confidence, May durable goods orders, weekly claims, May personal income and spending, June Chicago purchasing mgrs. index lead the parade.

The recent trading ranges in the treasury and mortgage markets are likely to hold any movement this week. The EU summit isn’t getting any respect from the markets with Germany continuing to resist about any idea tossed out for consideration. As long as Germany is unwilling to bend (and take on more risk) there is little chance there is going to be an acceptable long range “plan”. Germany won’t move off its stringent objections to anything as long as it isn’t forced to do so. The force would come when the German economy softens more and the German bond market comes under pressure; so far German debt yields very low rates as demand for its debt from Europeans continues robust.