Mortgage Rate Update
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Tuesday, May 31, 2011
Mortgage Rates
Anthony Hood
Equity Investment Capital
Office: 949-891-0067
Email: tony@equityinvestmentcapital.com
website: www.equityinvestmentcapital.com
Tuesday, May 31, 2011
Not a good start this morning in the bond and mortgage markets. This is employment week when most attention is directed to working the estimates all week; current thoughts are for jobs to increase 185K with non-farm private jobs +220K and unemployment unchanged at 9.0%. The forecasts likely to be moving all week; on tomorrow we get a look at what ADP estimates, presently it is expected to show an increase of 170K private jobs.
The 10 yr note yield is finding momentary resistance at its 200 day moving average. Over the weekend news from Europe that a deal may be in the offing to help Greece avoid defaults has also pressured the bond and mortgage markets as the dollar is declining against the euro, that in turn is putting a bid in US equities. Some of the safety buying from potential debt problems in Europe are being lifted adding additional pressure in the US rate markets. At 9:30 the DJIA opened +106, the 10- yr -6/32 at 3.10% and mortgage prices -7/32 (.22 bp).
German retail sales rose in April as unemployment fell below 3 million for the first time in almost 19 years, fueling bets that the European Central Bank will signal next week that it may raise interest rates for a second time this year. A separate European Union report showed euro-region inflation slowed in May to 2.7% from April’s 2.8%, the fastest pace since October 2008. Better economic reads from Germany and lower inflation added to what is expected on the US jobs report on Friday are a drag on US rate markets.
The Case/Shiller home prices fell 4.2% yr/yr; in April prices fell 0.6% in the 10 city and -0.8% in the 20 city data. Prices continue to fall and the outlook doesn't look any better; housing according to Shiller are now in a confirmed double dip with prices expected to continue to fall particularly in the areas hardest hit; Phoenix, Florida, Nevada and California. Until the inventory is stabilized (banks continuing to unload foreclosures into markets) the deli one in prices is expected to continue.
At 9:45 the May Chicago purchasing mgrs data was weaker than expected and follows the various Fed regional reports over the past couple of weeks. The overall index was expected at 62.5 frm 67.6, as reported it fell to 56.6; new orders index 53.5 frm 66.3, prices pd at 78.6 frm 81.8 and employment fell to 60.8 frm 63.7. Any index over 50 is considered expansion, under 50 contraction. Only a slight reaction to the data improving rate prices by 3/32 frm their low.
At 10:00 My consumer confidence from the Conference Board was expected at 66.3 frm 66.0 in April; as reported it fell to 60.8 the lowest level since last November. Present conditions 39.3 frm 40.2, expectations at 75.2 frm 83.2 and inflation expectations at 6.6 frm 6.3. Another weak report.
This Week's Economic Calendar:
Wednesday;
7:00 am MBA mortgage apps
8:15 am ADP jobs estimate for May (+170K non-farm private jobs)
10:00 am ISM May manufacturing index (57.6 frm 60.4)
Apr construction spending (-0.5%)
3:00 pm May auto and truck sales (N/A)
Thursday;
8:30 am weekly jobless claims (-11K to 413K; con't claims 3.688 mil frm 3.690 mil)
Q1 productivity revision (+1.6% unch frm previous release)
Q1 unit labor costs (+0.9%)
10:00 am Apr factory orders (-1.0%)
Friday;
8:30 am May employment data (non-farm jobs +185K, non-farm private jobs +220K, unemployment +9.0%)
10:00 am May ISM services sector index (53.3 frm 52.8)
The data this morning was all weaker than expected; the rate markets have improved by 10:10 from levels where prices were set this morning.
Anthony Hood
Equity Investment Capital
Office: 949-891-0067
Email: tony@equityinvestmentcapital.com
website: www.equityinvestmentcapital.com
Tuesday, May 31, 2011
Not a good start this morning in the bond and mortgage markets. This is employment week when most attention is directed to working the estimates all week; current thoughts are for jobs to increase 185K with non-farm private jobs +220K and unemployment unchanged at 9.0%. The forecasts likely to be moving all week; on tomorrow we get a look at what ADP estimates, presently it is expected to show an increase of 170K private jobs.
The 10 yr note yield is finding momentary resistance at its 200 day moving average. Over the weekend news from Europe that a deal may be in the offing to help Greece avoid defaults has also pressured the bond and mortgage markets as the dollar is declining against the euro, that in turn is putting a bid in US equities. Some of the safety buying from potential debt problems in Europe are being lifted adding additional pressure in the US rate markets. At 9:30 the DJIA opened +106, the 10- yr -6/32 at 3.10% and mortgage prices -7/32 (.22 bp).
German retail sales rose in April as unemployment fell below 3 million for the first time in almost 19 years, fueling bets that the European Central Bank will signal next week that it may raise interest rates for a second time this year. A separate European Union report showed euro-region inflation slowed in May to 2.7% from April’s 2.8%, the fastest pace since October 2008. Better economic reads from Germany and lower inflation added to what is expected on the US jobs report on Friday are a drag on US rate markets.
The Case/Shiller home prices fell 4.2% yr/yr; in April prices fell 0.6% in the 10 city and -0.8% in the 20 city data. Prices continue to fall and the outlook doesn't look any better; housing according to Shiller are now in a confirmed double dip with prices expected to continue to fall particularly in the areas hardest hit; Phoenix, Florida, Nevada and California. Until the inventory is stabilized (banks continuing to unload foreclosures into markets) the deli one in prices is expected to continue.
At 9:45 the May Chicago purchasing mgrs data was weaker than expected and follows the various Fed regional reports over the past couple of weeks. The overall index was expected at 62.5 frm 67.6, as reported it fell to 56.6; new orders index 53.5 frm 66.3, prices pd at 78.6 frm 81.8 and employment fell to 60.8 frm 63.7. Any index over 50 is considered expansion, under 50 contraction. Only a slight reaction to the data improving rate prices by 3/32 frm their low.
At 10:00 My consumer confidence from the Conference Board was expected at 66.3 frm 66.0 in April; as reported it fell to 60.8 the lowest level since last November. Present conditions 39.3 frm 40.2, expectations at 75.2 frm 83.2 and inflation expectations at 6.6 frm 6.3. Another weak report.
This Week's Economic Calendar:
Wednesday;
7:00 am MBA mortgage apps
8:15 am ADP jobs estimate for May (+170K non-farm private jobs)
10:00 am ISM May manufacturing index (57.6 frm 60.4)
Apr construction spending (-0.5%)
3:00 pm May auto and truck sales (N/A)
Thursday;
8:30 am weekly jobless claims (-11K to 413K; con't claims 3.688 mil frm 3.690 mil)
Q1 productivity revision (+1.6% unch frm previous release)
Q1 unit labor costs (+0.9%)
10:00 am Apr factory orders (-1.0%)
Friday;
8:30 am May employment data (non-farm jobs +185K, non-farm private jobs +220K, unemployment +9.0%)
10:00 am May ISM services sector index (53.3 frm 52.8)
The data this morning was all weaker than expected; the rate markets have improved by 10:10 from levels where prices were set this morning.
Friday, May 27, 2011
Thursday, May 26, 2011
Mortgage Rates
Anthony Hood
Equity Investment Capital
Office: 949-891-0067
Email: tony@equityinvestmentcapital.com
website: www.equityinvestmentcapital.com
Building Strong, Lasting Relationships; One Client at a Time.
Thursday, May 26, 2011
Prior to 8:30 this morning the bond and mortgage markets were slightly weaker; at 8:30 the bond market found some support when weekly jobless claims and Q1 GDP revision were released. Weekly jobless claims were expected to have declined 5K to 9K to 400K, claims increased 10K to 424K and last week's claims were revised slightly higher from 409K to 414K. Continuing claims however continued to decline, 3.69 mil frm 3.736 mil last week as more are losing their unemployment. Q1 GDP on the advance report last month was +1.8%, the preliminary report this morning was widely expected to be revised to +2.0% to +2.2%; as released GDP was unchanged at 1.8%. Consumer spending in Q1 was revised from +2.7% to +2.2%; we have repeatedly warned that consumers will not increase discretionary spending with home prices falling and unemployment high. The market reactions to the two data points turned treasury prices and mortgage prices higher. At 9:00 the 10 yr +5/32 at its critical 3.11% and mortgage prices +4/32 (.12 bp).
The two data points at 8:30 took a lot of steam out of trading in the stock index futures, although all key indexes remain better going into the 9:30 open. At 9:30 the DJIA opened -30, the 10 yr 3.11% +6/32, mortgage prices +3/32 (.09 bp).
At 1:00 this afternoon Treasury will complete this week's $99B borrowing with $29B of 7 yr notes, so far the 2 and the 5 went well, most expect the 7 yr auction will also see good bidding.
Europe's debt problems do not get any better, only worsening. This morning a former European Central Bank Chief Economist Omar Issing commented that Greece will probably not be able to meet its obligations. “I’m skeptical about Greece,” said Issing, who joined the ECB a year before the euro’s inception in 1999 and stayed there until 2006. “Greece is not just illiquid, it’s insolvent.” The region’s debt crisis, which has also forced Ireland and Portugal to seek bailouts, has left the euro in a “critical” condition. Europe's debt problems and the economic outlook in the US are key factors why US interest rates are this low. Safety moves away from equities at the moment and what is likely a default by Greece and possibly other EU countries is keeping investors in safe mode.
Here we are again; the 10 yr note at 3.11%, the 4.0 30 yr FNMA coupon not able to break above its 200 day average. Although this is only Thursday there is a long week-end ahead with US markets closed Monday and an early close in the bond market tomorrow, the bond market should hold well today and tomorrow. Traders won't have any motivation to be heavy sellers in the bond market as Europe continues to provide support with all its critical debt problems.
Crude oil and gold lower to start this morning; crude down $0.23 at 9:30, gold -$2.90 (see below for 10:00 prices).
The Q1 GDP report this morning confirms that the US economy is still struggling; most every economist had forecast GDP would come at 2.0% or higher on the revision this morning. GDP growth in Q1 at 1.8% is down from 3.1% growth in Q4 2010; Q2 is likely to be even weaker than Q1. The weakening economy will keep the Fed from any plans to increase the FF rate this year and increase the conversation of another easing after QE 2 ends at the end of June. Our economic outlook is a little more bearish than the so called consensus but we don't believe the Fed will embark on another massive easing move. The Fed's QE 2 did nothing to slow unemployment, did nothing to improve the economy and did nothing to help the housing sector----the main drag on the economy. What it did do was push investors into the equity markets, large investors that are now exiting and moving to safe havens. Historic low interest rates have had only a very minor benefit to housing, there is little reason to expect another easing move will change anything.
Anthony Hood
Equity Investment Capital
Office: 949-891-0067
Email: tony@equityinvestmentcapital.com
website: www.equityinvestmentcapital.com
Building Strong, Lasting Relationships; One Client at a Time.
Thursday, May 26, 2011
Prior to 8:30 this morning the bond and mortgage markets were slightly weaker; at 8:30 the bond market found some support when weekly jobless claims and Q1 GDP revision were released. Weekly jobless claims were expected to have declined 5K to 9K to 400K, claims increased 10K to 424K and last week's claims were revised slightly higher from 409K to 414K. Continuing claims however continued to decline, 3.69 mil frm 3.736 mil last week as more are losing their unemployment. Q1 GDP on the advance report last month was +1.8%, the preliminary report this morning was widely expected to be revised to +2.0% to +2.2%; as released GDP was unchanged at 1.8%. Consumer spending in Q1 was revised from +2.7% to +2.2%; we have repeatedly warned that consumers will not increase discretionary spending with home prices falling and unemployment high. The market reactions to the two data points turned treasury prices and mortgage prices higher. At 9:00 the 10 yr +5/32 at its critical 3.11% and mortgage prices +4/32 (.12 bp).
The two data points at 8:30 took a lot of steam out of trading in the stock index futures, although all key indexes remain better going into the 9:30 open. At 9:30 the DJIA opened -30, the 10 yr 3.11% +6/32, mortgage prices +3/32 (.09 bp).
At 1:00 this afternoon Treasury will complete this week's $99B borrowing with $29B of 7 yr notes, so far the 2 and the 5 went well, most expect the 7 yr auction will also see good bidding.
Europe's debt problems do not get any better, only worsening. This morning a former European Central Bank Chief Economist Omar Issing commented that Greece will probably not be able to meet its obligations. “I’m skeptical about Greece,” said Issing, who joined the ECB a year before the euro’s inception in 1999 and stayed there until 2006. “Greece is not just illiquid, it’s insolvent.” The region’s debt crisis, which has also forced Ireland and Portugal to seek bailouts, has left the euro in a “critical” condition. Europe's debt problems and the economic outlook in the US are key factors why US interest rates are this low. Safety moves away from equities at the moment and what is likely a default by Greece and possibly other EU countries is keeping investors in safe mode.
Here we are again; the 10 yr note at 3.11%, the 4.0 30 yr FNMA coupon not able to break above its 200 day average. Although this is only Thursday there is a long week-end ahead with US markets closed Monday and an early close in the bond market tomorrow, the bond market should hold well today and tomorrow. Traders won't have any motivation to be heavy sellers in the bond market as Europe continues to provide support with all its critical debt problems.
Crude oil and gold lower to start this morning; crude down $0.23 at 9:30, gold -$2.90 (see below for 10:00 prices).
The Q1 GDP report this morning confirms that the US economy is still struggling; most every economist had forecast GDP would come at 2.0% or higher on the revision this morning. GDP growth in Q1 at 1.8% is down from 3.1% growth in Q4 2010; Q2 is likely to be even weaker than Q1. The weakening economy will keep the Fed from any plans to increase the FF rate this year and increase the conversation of another easing after QE 2 ends at the end of June. Our economic outlook is a little more bearish than the so called consensus but we don't believe the Fed will embark on another massive easing move. The Fed's QE 2 did nothing to slow unemployment, did nothing to improve the economy and did nothing to help the housing sector----the main drag on the economy. What it did do was push investors into the equity markets, large investors that are now exiting and moving to safe havens. Historic low interest rates have had only a very minor benefit to housing, there is little reason to expect another easing move will change anything.
Wednesday, May 25, 2011
Mortgage Rates
:
Anthony Hood
Equity Investment Capital
Office: 949-891-0067
Email: tony@equityinvestmentcapital.com
website: www.equityinvestmentcapital.com
Building Strong, Lasting Relationships; One Client at a Time.
Wednesday, May 25, 2011
Rate markets started slightly weaker this morning, the bellwether 10 yr note still unable to crack 3.10% closing yesterday at 3.11% and at 8:45 this morning at 3.13%. Mortgage prices also a little weaker, -4/32 (.12 bp) at 8:45. Asian stock markets were lower on soft earnings, Europe's stock markets trading weaker and US stock indexes looking soft into the 9:30 open. Crude lower to start the day while gold a little higher.
At 8:30 April durable goods orders were a lot weaker than thought; orders expected down 2.0% fell 3.6% after increasing 4.4% in March, the decline in April the biggest since Oct 2010. When transportation orders are excludes durables fell -1.% against estimates of an increase of o.5%; ex defense orders -3.6% (-0.4% expected), the largest decline since Jan 2009. Durables are the most volatile series we deal with each month and subject to big revisions, no initial market reaction to the weaker report, but as the clock ticked the interest rate markets held well; at 9:15 mtg prices +1/32 (.03 bp).
At 9:30 the DJIA opened weaker, down 35, the 10 yr +2/32 at 3.11% and mortgage prices +2/32 (.06 bp).
At 10:00 March FHFA housing price index, a series that doesn't mean a lot in that housing is still dragging the US economy down and there is nothing on the immediate horizon that will change. The index as reported a decline of 0.3% after a decline of 1.5% in Feb.
Early this morning the weekly MBA mortgage applications. Applications increased 1.1% from one week earlier. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 1.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. The Refinance Index increased 0.9% to its highest level since December 10, 2010. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 1.5% from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 0.8% compared with the previous week and was 3.1% higher than the same week one year ago. The four week moving average for the seasonally adjusted Market Index is up 5.2%. The four week moving average is up 1.2% for the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index, while this average is up 7.1% for the Refinance Index. The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 66.8% of total applications from 66.7% the previous week. This is the highest refinance share since January 28, 2011. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity decreased to 5.8% from 6.3% of total applications from the previous week. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages increased to 4.69% from 4.60%, with points decreasing to 0.69 from 0.93 (including the origination fee) for 80% loans. The average contract interest rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages increased to 3.78% from 3.75%, with points decreasing to 1.04 from 1.22 (including the origination fee) for 80% loans.
Yesterday's $35B 2 yr note auction met with strong demand; at 1:00 this afternoon the second of the three borrowing auctions. $35B of 5 yr notes will be sold, after the firm demand for the 2 yr expectations are for another good auction today with investors looking for safety as global equity markets and economic outlooks are being lowered. Not much incentive to invest in stock markets now, commodity prices churning after the purge in the past two weeks.
The OECD maintained its forecasts for the world economy to expand 4.2% this year and 4.6% in 2012, and raised them for U.S. growth in 2011 even as it warned of stagflation in some economies. Nice forecast but we are not that optimistic. The OECD warned that the US and Japan have to deal more directly on the respective growing deficits; that of course isn't new news. So far the US has no political appetite to make the serious decisions that are necessary to lower the annual budget deficits; Congress and the Administration have until August 2nd to get an agreement to extend the debt ceiling and come up with a plan that actually cuts spending, likely they won't have anything until August 1st.
:
Anthony Hood
Equity Investment Capital
Office: 949-891-0067
Email: tony@equityinvestmentcapital.com
website: www.equityinvestmentcapital.com
Building Strong, Lasting Relationships; One Client at a Time.
Wednesday, May 25, 2011
Rate markets started slightly weaker this morning, the bellwether 10 yr note still unable to crack 3.10% closing yesterday at 3.11% and at 8:45 this morning at 3.13%. Mortgage prices also a little weaker, -4/32 (.12 bp) at 8:45. Asian stock markets were lower on soft earnings, Europe's stock markets trading weaker and US stock indexes looking soft into the 9:30 open. Crude lower to start the day while gold a little higher.
At 8:30 April durable goods orders were a lot weaker than thought; orders expected down 2.0% fell 3.6% after increasing 4.4% in March, the decline in April the biggest since Oct 2010. When transportation orders are excludes durables fell -1.% against estimates of an increase of o.5%; ex defense orders -3.6% (-0.4% expected), the largest decline since Jan 2009. Durables are the most volatile series we deal with each month and subject to big revisions, no initial market reaction to the weaker report, but as the clock ticked the interest rate markets held well; at 9:15 mtg prices +1/32 (.03 bp).
At 9:30 the DJIA opened weaker, down 35, the 10 yr +2/32 at 3.11% and mortgage prices +2/32 (.06 bp).
At 10:00 March FHFA housing price index, a series that doesn't mean a lot in that housing is still dragging the US economy down and there is nothing on the immediate horizon that will change. The index as reported a decline of 0.3% after a decline of 1.5% in Feb.
Early this morning the weekly MBA mortgage applications. Applications increased 1.1% from one week earlier. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 1.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. The Refinance Index increased 0.9% to its highest level since December 10, 2010. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 1.5% from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 0.8% compared with the previous week and was 3.1% higher than the same week one year ago. The four week moving average for the seasonally adjusted Market Index is up 5.2%. The four week moving average is up 1.2% for the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index, while this average is up 7.1% for the Refinance Index. The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 66.8% of total applications from 66.7% the previous week. This is the highest refinance share since January 28, 2011. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity decreased to 5.8% from 6.3% of total applications from the previous week. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages increased to 4.69% from 4.60%, with points decreasing to 0.69 from 0.93 (including the origination fee) for 80% loans. The average contract interest rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages increased to 3.78% from 3.75%, with points decreasing to 1.04 from 1.22 (including the origination fee) for 80% loans.
Yesterday's $35B 2 yr note auction met with strong demand; at 1:00 this afternoon the second of the three borrowing auctions. $35B of 5 yr notes will be sold, after the firm demand for the 2 yr expectations are for another good auction today with investors looking for safety as global equity markets and economic outlooks are being lowered. Not much incentive to invest in stock markets now, commodity prices churning after the purge in the past two weeks.
The OECD maintained its forecasts for the world economy to expand 4.2% this year and 4.6% in 2012, and raised them for U.S. growth in 2011 even as it warned of stagflation in some economies. Nice forecast but we are not that optimistic. The OECD warned that the US and Japan have to deal more directly on the respective growing deficits; that of course isn't new news. So far the US has no political appetite to make the serious decisions that are necessary to lower the annual budget deficits; Congress and the Administration have until August 2nd to get an agreement to extend the debt ceiling and come up with a plan that actually cuts spending, likely they won't have anything until August 1st.
Tuesday, May 24, 2011
Mortgage Rates
Anthony Hood
Equity Investment Capital
Office: 949-891-0067
Email: tony@equityinvestmentcapital.com
website: www.equityinvestmentcapital.com
Building Strong, Lasting Relationships; One Client at a Time.
Tuesday, May 24, 2011
Some slippage early this morning; the bond and mortgage markets trading slightly weaker after another attempt to break 3.10% on the 10 yr note yesterday. Yesterday the 10 yr made another attempt to push below its resistance, just couldn't make it although it did decline 2 basis points with mortgage rates unchanged on the session. Yesterday the bond market had support from continued uncertainty about Europe's debt problems in the "infamous five" countries facing potential defaults. The weaker stock market yesterday also kept safety moves into treasuries alive.
This morning the US stock market key indexes were pointing to a better open at 9:30 after the DJIA declined 131 points yesterday. At 9:00 mortgage markets were down 6/32 (.18 bp) frm yesterday's unchanged prices, the DJIA +47, the 10 yr note -6/32 at 3.15%. Crude oil at 9:00 +$2.00, gold up $7.50. At 9:30 the DJIA opened +21, the 10 yr -7/32 at 3.15% and mortgage prices down 4/32 (.12 bp) frm yesterday's close.
CNBC Fed survey out this morning; 55% of recipients said the Fed's monetary policy is too loose, most believe the Fed will not increase rates until the first Q of 2012 and by the end of 2012 the FF rate now at zero/0.25% will be .75%. The estimates for 2011 GDP growth reduced from 3.07% to 2.7%.
Do the big Wall Street firms actually have any sustainable idea about where markets are headed? Uncertainty continues to dominate the outlooks for equity markets and commodities. Commodities advanced after Goldman Sachs Group Inc. recommended buying oil and copper, reversing last month’s call to sell. Energy shares led gains in the MSCI emerging index on stocks overnight on the turn-around. Goldman, which correctly advised investors to sell crude oil and copper last month before a price slump, raised its 12- month prediction for Brent crude to $130 a barrel from $107 and in turn the outlook for US oil prices has increased once again. “It is only a matter of time until inventories and OPEC spare capacity will become effectively exhausted, requiring higher oil prices to restrain demand, keeping it in line with available supplies.”
Britain posted its largest budget shortfall for any April since monthly records began in 1993 as tax revenue fell and spending climbed, casting doubt on whether the government can meet its deficit-reduction target this year.
At 10:00 the data today; April new home sales were expected to be unchanged, as reported sales were up 7.3% to 323K units annualized. The inventory level fell to 6.5 months supply frm 7.2 months in March; March sales were revised higher to +8.3%. Also at 10:00 another regional Fed manufacturing index, this frm the Richmond Fed, it declined to contracting at -6 frm +10 in April; that is the third regional Fed survey that has fallen in May. Better housing but much weaker Fed regional indexes have added some support in the bond market and pushed the stock indexes back. Not much enthusiasm over the home sales, as foreclosures hit the markets over the next year there is little we can build on to justify a better housing market.
At 1:00 this afternoon Treasury will auction the first of three auctions this week; $35B of 2 yr notes. Expectations are the demand will be good given the demand for safety that is dominating the recent decline in interest rates.
A couple of Fed officials out today; at 9:50 Thomas Hoenig Kansas City Fed and at 1:20 St Louis Fed James Bullard. Not likely either will add anything new.
The bond and mortgage markets continue to carry bullish technicals but unless the 10 yr note can crack 3.10% soon most of our technical work will turn bearish. If that happens we don't expect a major increase ion rates but the near term could push the 10 yr note up to 3.25% and mortgage rates up 8 to 10 basis points; in the meantime we have little reason to turn bearish---just an increase in caution at the moment.
Anthony Hood
Equity Investment Capital
Office: 949-891-0067
Email: tony@equityinvestmentcapital.com
website: www.equityinvestmentcapital.com
Building Strong, Lasting Relationships; One Client at a Time.
Tuesday, May 24, 2011
Some slippage early this morning; the bond and mortgage markets trading slightly weaker after another attempt to break 3.10% on the 10 yr note yesterday. Yesterday the 10 yr made another attempt to push below its resistance, just couldn't make it although it did decline 2 basis points with mortgage rates unchanged on the session. Yesterday the bond market had support from continued uncertainty about Europe's debt problems in the "infamous five" countries facing potential defaults. The weaker stock market yesterday also kept safety moves into treasuries alive.
This morning the US stock market key indexes were pointing to a better open at 9:30 after the DJIA declined 131 points yesterday. At 9:00 mortgage markets were down 6/32 (.18 bp) frm yesterday's unchanged prices, the DJIA +47, the 10 yr note -6/32 at 3.15%. Crude oil at 9:00 +$2.00, gold up $7.50. At 9:30 the DJIA opened +21, the 10 yr -7/32 at 3.15% and mortgage prices down 4/32 (.12 bp) frm yesterday's close.
CNBC Fed survey out this morning; 55% of recipients said the Fed's monetary policy is too loose, most believe the Fed will not increase rates until the first Q of 2012 and by the end of 2012 the FF rate now at zero/0.25% will be .75%. The estimates for 2011 GDP growth reduced from 3.07% to 2.7%.
Do the big Wall Street firms actually have any sustainable idea about where markets are headed? Uncertainty continues to dominate the outlooks for equity markets and commodities. Commodities advanced after Goldman Sachs Group Inc. recommended buying oil and copper, reversing last month’s call to sell. Energy shares led gains in the MSCI emerging index on stocks overnight on the turn-around. Goldman, which correctly advised investors to sell crude oil and copper last month before a price slump, raised its 12- month prediction for Brent crude to $130 a barrel from $107 and in turn the outlook for US oil prices has increased once again. “It is only a matter of time until inventories and OPEC spare capacity will become effectively exhausted, requiring higher oil prices to restrain demand, keeping it in line with available supplies.”
Britain posted its largest budget shortfall for any April since monthly records began in 1993 as tax revenue fell and spending climbed, casting doubt on whether the government can meet its deficit-reduction target this year.
At 10:00 the data today; April new home sales were expected to be unchanged, as reported sales were up 7.3% to 323K units annualized. The inventory level fell to 6.5 months supply frm 7.2 months in March; March sales were revised higher to +8.3%. Also at 10:00 another regional Fed manufacturing index, this frm the Richmond Fed, it declined to contracting at -6 frm +10 in April; that is the third regional Fed survey that has fallen in May. Better housing but much weaker Fed regional indexes have added some support in the bond market and pushed the stock indexes back. Not much enthusiasm over the home sales, as foreclosures hit the markets over the next year there is little we can build on to justify a better housing market.
At 1:00 this afternoon Treasury will auction the first of three auctions this week; $35B of 2 yr notes. Expectations are the demand will be good given the demand for safety that is dominating the recent decline in interest rates.
A couple of Fed officials out today; at 9:50 Thomas Hoenig Kansas City Fed and at 1:20 St Louis Fed James Bullard. Not likely either will add anything new.
The bond and mortgage markets continue to carry bullish technicals but unless the 10 yr note can crack 3.10% soon most of our technical work will turn bearish. If that happens we don't expect a major increase ion rates but the near term could push the 10 yr note up to 3.25% and mortgage rates up 8 to 10 basis points; in the meantime we have little reason to turn bearish---just an increase in caution at the moment.
Monday, May 23, 2011
Mortgage Rates
Anthony Hood
Equity Investment Capital
Office: 949-891-0067
Email: tony@equityinvestmentcapital.com
website: www.equityinvestmentcapital.com
Building Strong, Lasting Relationships; One Client at a Time.
Monday, May 23, 2011
Treasuries have been bid from the get go in Asia as continued problems in the euro zone peripheries have sparked a flight to safety bid. On Saturday, S&P downgraded Italy's credit outlook to negative. Spanish citizens went to the polls over the weekend and dealt a devastating blow to Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez's Socialist party as it witnessed its worst defeat in more than 30 years amid its plan for austerity. Manufacturing readings from China and the euro zone showed manufacturing slowed from previous readings. All of these developments have been grounds for a move into the safety of US Treasuries as maturities across the complex are seeing modest gains.
The Chicago Fed national index, which draws on 85 economic indicators, was -0.45 in April versus +0.32 in March. A reading below zero indicates below-trend-growth in the national economy and a sign of easing pressures on future inflation. The index decline follows last week's Philadelphia Fed index which also fell substantially.
US interest rates this morning are falling, following rate declines in Germany and France. Greece's debt, Spain's elections and new reports from Asian countries that their economies may not be as strong as what was widely believed. The US stock market is opening very soft this morning and bonds and mortgages benefiting from continuing safe haven moves out of more risky investments to US treasuries.
Crude oil this morning down over $3.00, the dollar stronger against the euro and other currencies. The dollar index is seeing strong gains on the heels of continued problems in euro zone peripheries. The index touched a session high of 76.37, its best level since mid-March. EUR/USD dipped below 1.40 for the first time since late-March, bogged down by S&P lowering Italy's credit outlook to negative, the Spanish election results, and slowing manufacturing numbers in the euro zone, France and Germany.
At 9:30 the bellwether 10 yr note is again at its lowest yield since last Dec; the DJIA opened -145, the 10 yr note at 3.10% -5 bp (lowest rate since last Dec); mortgage prices +8/32 (.25 bp) frm Friday's close.
This Week's Economic Calendar:
Tuesday;
10:00 am April new home sales (unchanged at 300K annualized units)
1:00 pm $35B 2 yr note auction
Wednesday;
7:00 am weekly MBA mortgage applications
8:30 am Apr durable goods orders (-2.0% frm +4.1% in March; ex transportation +0.6% frm +2.3% in March)
10:00 am FHFA housing price index (N/A)
1:00 pm $35B 5 yr note auction
Thursday;
8:30 am Q1 prelim GDP (+2.0%, up frm +1.8% in the advance report last month)
weekly jobless claims (-9K to 400K; con't claims 3.70 mil frm 3.711 mil)
1:00 pm $29B 7 yr note auction
Friday;
8:30 am April personal income and spending (income +0.4%, spending +0.5%)
9:55 am U. of Michigan consumer sentiment index (72.4 unchanged)
10:00 am Mar pending home sales (-1.8%)
With all the bearish news over the weekend from China to Germany to France to the BRICs to Greece to Spain and here in the US with the Chicago Fed economic index reading negative; the safety moves to US bonds will keep mortgage rates lower. At 10:00 the 10 yr note is trading at its lowest yield seen in this run and the lowest since last Dec (3.10%). This week will likely be more volatile in the bond and mortgage markets with rates at these very low levels.
Anthony Hood
Equity Investment Capital
Office: 949-891-0067
Email: tony@equityinvestmentcapital.com
website: www.equityinvestmentcapital.com
Building Strong, Lasting Relationships; One Client at a Time.
Monday, May 23, 2011
Treasuries have been bid from the get go in Asia as continued problems in the euro zone peripheries have sparked a flight to safety bid. On Saturday, S&P downgraded Italy's credit outlook to negative. Spanish citizens went to the polls over the weekend and dealt a devastating blow to Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez's Socialist party as it witnessed its worst defeat in more than 30 years amid its plan for austerity. Manufacturing readings from China and the euro zone showed manufacturing slowed from previous readings. All of these developments have been grounds for a move into the safety of US Treasuries as maturities across the complex are seeing modest gains.
The Chicago Fed national index, which draws on 85 economic indicators, was -0.45 in April versus +0.32 in March. A reading below zero indicates below-trend-growth in the national economy and a sign of easing pressures on future inflation. The index decline follows last week's Philadelphia Fed index which also fell substantially.
US interest rates this morning are falling, following rate declines in Germany and France. Greece's debt, Spain's elections and new reports from Asian countries that their economies may not be as strong as what was widely believed. The US stock market is opening very soft this morning and bonds and mortgages benefiting from continuing safe haven moves out of more risky investments to US treasuries.
Crude oil this morning down over $3.00, the dollar stronger against the euro and other currencies. The dollar index is seeing strong gains on the heels of continued problems in euro zone peripheries. The index touched a session high of 76.37, its best level since mid-March. EUR/USD dipped below 1.40 for the first time since late-March, bogged down by S&P lowering Italy's credit outlook to negative, the Spanish election results, and slowing manufacturing numbers in the euro zone, France and Germany.
At 9:30 the bellwether 10 yr note is again at its lowest yield since last Dec; the DJIA opened -145, the 10 yr note at 3.10% -5 bp (lowest rate since last Dec); mortgage prices +8/32 (.25 bp) frm Friday's close.
This Week's Economic Calendar:
Tuesday;
10:00 am April new home sales (unchanged at 300K annualized units)
1:00 pm $35B 2 yr note auction
Wednesday;
7:00 am weekly MBA mortgage applications
8:30 am Apr durable goods orders (-2.0% frm +4.1% in March; ex transportation +0.6% frm +2.3% in March)
10:00 am FHFA housing price index (N/A)
1:00 pm $35B 5 yr note auction
Thursday;
8:30 am Q1 prelim GDP (+2.0%, up frm +1.8% in the advance report last month)
weekly jobless claims (-9K to 400K; con't claims 3.70 mil frm 3.711 mil)
1:00 pm $29B 7 yr note auction
Friday;
8:30 am April personal income and spending (income +0.4%, spending +0.5%)
9:55 am U. of Michigan consumer sentiment index (72.4 unchanged)
10:00 am Mar pending home sales (-1.8%)
With all the bearish news over the weekend from China to Germany to France to the BRICs to Greece to Spain and here in the US with the Chicago Fed economic index reading negative; the safety moves to US bonds will keep mortgage rates lower. At 10:00 the 10 yr note is trading at its lowest yield seen in this run and the lowest since last Dec (3.10%). This week will likely be more volatile in the bond and mortgage markets with rates at these very low levels.
Friday, May 20, 2011
Mortgage Rates
Anthony Hood
Equity Investment Capital
Office: 949-891-0067
Email: tony@equityinvestmentcapital.com
website: www.equityinvestmentcapital.com
Building Strong, Lasting Relationships; One Client at a Time.
Friday, May 20, 2011
Yesterday's shocking surprise on the May Philly Fed business index turned what was likely to be a run to slightly higher rates around on a dime. The index was expected to increase from 18.5 in April to 20 in May' as released the index plunged to 3.9 and the new orders component fell substantially, from 18.8 to 5.4. Until that hit at 10:00 the bond and mortgage markets were not looking good; the 10 yr note yield had spiked from 3.11% on Tuesday to 3.25% at 9:59 yesterday and mortgage prices had declined 24/32 (.75 bp) with the 30 yr rate up 10 basis points. The very closely monitored Philly Fed decline temporarily reversed heavy selling that was predicated on the FOMC minutes from the 4/27 meeting in which there was a lot of discussion about the Fed ending easing moves and how the Fed would begin to exit and the first move to tighten. The take away on Wednesday; the Fed believes the economic recovery will continue, no more QE and with interest rates so low investors and traders started toward the exit.
Already this morning we have seen a little volatility; at 8:00 the 10 yr note traded up 4/32 at 3.15%; at 9:00 the 10 yr note -4/32 at 3.19%. Mortgages followed, trading up 3/32 (.09 bp) at 8:00, -3/32 (.09 bp) at 9:00. At 9:30 the DJIA, NASDAQ and S&P all opened weaker; at 9:30 the 10 yr note unchanged and mortgage prices down 3/32 (.09 bp) frm yesterday's close.
There are no economic releases scheduled today and nothing next Monday. With no data points to either confirm the weak Philly Fed data or refute it the bond and mortgage markets will look to the action in the equity markets for direction today. Next week Treasury will auction $99B of notes, with the markets presently uncertain today well be a quiet one.
Crude oil started a little better but has turned lower, while the key stock indexes are starting a little soft after some minor improvement yesterday. By 10:00 the DJIA was down 61, mortgage prices at 10:00 up 6/32 (.18 bp) frm 9:30 levels and the 10 yr note yield 3.15 -2 bp. As equity indexes fall the rate markets will benefit and helps erase the bearishness that had developed on Wednesday.
News out of Germany's central bank today that the economy will likely slow suggests Germany will not likely have to increase rates again. The reaction is strengthening dollar against the euro and indirectly adds some support to the US bond market. The US economic outlook has been lowered, if Europe's economies slow our bond and mortgage markets should hold up well. German growth is “likely to ease somewhat in the foreseeable future,” the Frankfurt-based Bundesbank said in its monthly bulletin published today. Not only Europe; Japan is now in its third recession in the last 10 yrs, this time the March 11th earthquake is causing deeper spending cuts by consumers than what had been expected. Household spending had the largest back-to-back quarterly drop since the global financial crisis in 2008, the Cabinet Office said yesterday. The figures contrast with comments by Japan’s central bank, which refrained from adding more stimulus today, that the economy’s main challenge is one of supply chain disruptions caused by the earthquake, tsunami and nuclear crisis.
Earlier this week we were expecting a small increase in rates when the bellwether 10 yr note continued to fail at its resistance level (3.14%/3.11%). Until yesterday's Philly Fed business index collapsed rates were gathering momentum with rates increasing. The Philly Fed changed our view somewhat; with increasing evidence of economic slowing what appeared to be the beginning of a little increase in rates has been alleviated, at least momentarily. Technically the 10 yr, 30 yr futures contracts as well as the 30 yr 4.0 FNMA coupon all testing their respective 200 day moving averages, so far all of those averages have held.
Anthony Hood
Equity Investment Capital
Office: 949-891-0067
Email: tony@equityinvestmentcapital.com
website: www.equityinvestmentcapital.com
Building Strong, Lasting Relationships; One Client at a Time.
Friday, May 20, 2011
Yesterday's shocking surprise on the May Philly Fed business index turned what was likely to be a run to slightly higher rates around on a dime. The index was expected to increase from 18.5 in April to 20 in May' as released the index plunged to 3.9 and the new orders component fell substantially, from 18.8 to 5.4. Until that hit at 10:00 the bond and mortgage markets were not looking good; the 10 yr note yield had spiked from 3.11% on Tuesday to 3.25% at 9:59 yesterday and mortgage prices had declined 24/32 (.75 bp) with the 30 yr rate up 10 basis points. The very closely monitored Philly Fed decline temporarily reversed heavy selling that was predicated on the FOMC minutes from the 4/27 meeting in which there was a lot of discussion about the Fed ending easing moves and how the Fed would begin to exit and the first move to tighten. The take away on Wednesday; the Fed believes the economic recovery will continue, no more QE and with interest rates so low investors and traders started toward the exit.
Already this morning we have seen a little volatility; at 8:00 the 10 yr note traded up 4/32 at 3.15%; at 9:00 the 10 yr note -4/32 at 3.19%. Mortgages followed, trading up 3/32 (.09 bp) at 8:00, -3/32 (.09 bp) at 9:00. At 9:30 the DJIA, NASDAQ and S&P all opened weaker; at 9:30 the 10 yr note unchanged and mortgage prices down 3/32 (.09 bp) frm yesterday's close.
There are no economic releases scheduled today and nothing next Monday. With no data points to either confirm the weak Philly Fed data or refute it the bond and mortgage markets will look to the action in the equity markets for direction today. Next week Treasury will auction $99B of notes, with the markets presently uncertain today well be a quiet one.
Crude oil started a little better but has turned lower, while the key stock indexes are starting a little soft after some minor improvement yesterday. By 10:00 the DJIA was down 61, mortgage prices at 10:00 up 6/32 (.18 bp) frm 9:30 levels and the 10 yr note yield 3.15 -2 bp. As equity indexes fall the rate markets will benefit and helps erase the bearishness that had developed on Wednesday.
News out of Germany's central bank today that the economy will likely slow suggests Germany will not likely have to increase rates again. The reaction is strengthening dollar against the euro and indirectly adds some support to the US bond market. The US economic outlook has been lowered, if Europe's economies slow our bond and mortgage markets should hold up well. German growth is “likely to ease somewhat in the foreseeable future,” the Frankfurt-based Bundesbank said in its monthly bulletin published today. Not only Europe; Japan is now in its third recession in the last 10 yrs, this time the March 11th earthquake is causing deeper spending cuts by consumers than what had been expected. Household spending had the largest back-to-back quarterly drop since the global financial crisis in 2008, the Cabinet Office said yesterday. The figures contrast with comments by Japan’s central bank, which refrained from adding more stimulus today, that the economy’s main challenge is one of supply chain disruptions caused by the earthquake, tsunami and nuclear crisis.
Earlier this week we were expecting a small increase in rates when the bellwether 10 yr note continued to fail at its resistance level (3.14%/3.11%). Until yesterday's Philly Fed business index collapsed rates were gathering momentum with rates increasing. The Philly Fed changed our view somewhat; with increasing evidence of economic slowing what appeared to be the beginning of a little increase in rates has been alleviated, at least momentarily. Technically the 10 yr, 30 yr futures contracts as well as the 30 yr 4.0 FNMA coupon all testing their respective 200 day moving averages, so far all of those averages have held.
Thursday, May 19, 2011
Anthony Hood
Equity Investment Capital
Office: 949-891-0067
Email: tony@equityinvestmentcapital.com
website: www.equityinvestmentcapital.com
Building Strong, Lasting Relationships; One Client at a Time.
Thursday, May 19, 2011
Read all of this; 10:00 data has had an impact.
Yesterday's market trading in treasuries was a shot across the bow for interest rates; this morning more selling and we can say the end of the recent decline in rates is likely over. We have warned for a few days the decline in rates was becoming difficult to sustain. Tuesday the 10 yr note did take out its technical resistance at 3.14%, the level that had pushed back any attempts to move lower for two weeks. Yesterday there was no follow-through and yields jumped, in our view the increase in rates added confirmation to our forecast that rates have finally hit bottom and will likely inch higher now. The lows have likely been achieved, however we are not expecting interest rates to explode, rates will move up a little but still will be low in the near term. The economic outlook remains cloudy, that should keep interest rates from increasing much.
More selling to start the morning; at 9:00 the 10 yr note yield at 3.22% +3 bp after increasing 8 basis points yesterday; mortgage prices at 9:00 -9/32 (.28 bp) after declining 11/32 (.34 bp yesterday). All about weekly jobless claims early; claims were expected to decline 9K to 425K, as reported at 8:30 claims were down 29K to 409K. Continuing claims also fell more than thought, to 3.71 mil frm 3.792 mil the prior week; the 4 wk average did notch up, to 439K frm 437,750 however the average is set to fall next week with recent two week declines in claims. This is survey week for the BLS gathering data for May employment report that will be reported June 3rd.
Yesterday the minutes from the 4/27 FOMC meeting were released, although Bernanke held a press conference after the meeting his remarks didn't allude to the amount of time the members took to debate in more detail than any prior meeting on how the Fed will end its easing moves. That the members spent a great deal of time discussing it has lead to the belief there will be no more easing from the Fed. There was a view out there that the Fed might continue its easing efforts when the current QE 2 ($600B of treasury buying) ends at the end of next month, that idea took a hard blow yesterday.
At 9:30 the DJIA opened +40, the NASDAQ and S&P also opened better; the 10 yr note 3.24% +5 bp and mortgage prices at 9:30 -10/32 (.31 bp) frm yesterday's close.
More data at 10:00; April existing home sales, expected up 2.0%, fell 0.8% to 5.05 mil units frm 5.09 mil last month; the average sales price $163,700 down 5.0% frm April 2010. The shocker at 10:00, the May Philly Fed business index; it was widely expected at 20.0 frm 18.8 in April, as reported it fell to 3.9 a huge decline the lowest since Oct 2009. The new orders component at 5.4 frm 18.8 in Apr, prices pd at 48.3 frm 57.1 and the employment component at 22.1 frm 12.3 (any index over zero is considered expansion). The report is strange in that orders fell hard while employment increased. Finally at 10:00 April leading economic were expected +0.1% but was down 0.3% the first decline in that series since Feb 2009.
OK, early on treasuries were being hit hard, the 10:00 data stopped the selling and markets are improving. The 10 yr note cut its losses in half as have the mortgage markets. The DJIA and other key stock indexes took the data badly, the DJIA is generally unchanged at 10:10 after being up 60 points prior to the 10:00 data. Volatility will be high today after the very unexpected weak data reported. We will not change our outlook however, the bond and mortgage markets have likely seen their best levels.
Equity Investment Capital
Office: 949-891-0067
Email: tony@equityinvestmentcapital.com
website: www.equityinvestmentcapital.com
Building Strong, Lasting Relationships; One Client at a Time.
Thursday, May 19, 2011
Read all of this; 10:00 data has had an impact.
Yesterday's market trading in treasuries was a shot across the bow for interest rates; this morning more selling and we can say the end of the recent decline in rates is likely over. We have warned for a few days the decline in rates was becoming difficult to sustain. Tuesday the 10 yr note did take out its technical resistance at 3.14%, the level that had pushed back any attempts to move lower for two weeks. Yesterday there was no follow-through and yields jumped, in our view the increase in rates added confirmation to our forecast that rates have finally hit bottom and will likely inch higher now. The lows have likely been achieved, however we are not expecting interest rates to explode, rates will move up a little but still will be low in the near term. The economic outlook remains cloudy, that should keep interest rates from increasing much.
More selling to start the morning; at 9:00 the 10 yr note yield at 3.22% +3 bp after increasing 8 basis points yesterday; mortgage prices at 9:00 -9/32 (.28 bp) after declining 11/32 (.34 bp yesterday). All about weekly jobless claims early; claims were expected to decline 9K to 425K, as reported at 8:30 claims were down 29K to 409K. Continuing claims also fell more than thought, to 3.71 mil frm 3.792 mil the prior week; the 4 wk average did notch up, to 439K frm 437,750 however the average is set to fall next week with recent two week declines in claims. This is survey week for the BLS gathering data for May employment report that will be reported June 3rd.
Yesterday the minutes from the 4/27 FOMC meeting were released, although Bernanke held a press conference after the meeting his remarks didn't allude to the amount of time the members took to debate in more detail than any prior meeting on how the Fed will end its easing moves. That the members spent a great deal of time discussing it has lead to the belief there will be no more easing from the Fed. There was a view out there that the Fed might continue its easing efforts when the current QE 2 ($600B of treasury buying) ends at the end of next month, that idea took a hard blow yesterday.
At 9:30 the DJIA opened +40, the NASDAQ and S&P also opened better; the 10 yr note 3.24% +5 bp and mortgage prices at 9:30 -10/32 (.31 bp) frm yesterday's close.
More data at 10:00; April existing home sales, expected up 2.0%, fell 0.8% to 5.05 mil units frm 5.09 mil last month; the average sales price $163,700 down 5.0% frm April 2010. The shocker at 10:00, the May Philly Fed business index; it was widely expected at 20.0 frm 18.8 in April, as reported it fell to 3.9 a huge decline the lowest since Oct 2009. The new orders component at 5.4 frm 18.8 in Apr, prices pd at 48.3 frm 57.1 and the employment component at 22.1 frm 12.3 (any index over zero is considered expansion). The report is strange in that orders fell hard while employment increased. Finally at 10:00 April leading economic were expected +0.1% but was down 0.3% the first decline in that series since Feb 2009.
OK, early on treasuries were being hit hard, the 10:00 data stopped the selling and markets are improving. The 10 yr note cut its losses in half as have the mortgage markets. The DJIA and other key stock indexes took the data badly, the DJIA is generally unchanged at 10:10 after being up 60 points prior to the 10:00 data. Volatility will be high today after the very unexpected weak data reported. We will not change our outlook however, the bond and mortgage markets have likely seen their best levels.
Friday, May 13, 2011
Mortgage Rates
Anthony Hood
Equity Investment Capital
Office: 949-891-0067
Email: tony@equityinvestmentcapital.com
website: www.equityinvestmentcapital.com
Building Strong, Lasting Relationships; One Client at a Time.
Friday, May 13, 2011
Prior to 8:30 the interest rate markets were unchanged, at 8:30 April consumer price index was up 0.4% in line with forecasts, excluding food and energy +0.2% also about n line. Yr/yr overall CPI +3.2% up frm +2.7% in March, excluding food and energy +1.3% up frm +1.2% in March. The yr/yr CPI the highest in 3.5 years, mostly on oil and gasoline price increases. Inflation at the wholesale and intermediate levels is climbing but so far price increases have not yet filtered down to consumers, although the core did increase from March to April.
Treasury auctions are over now until a week after next, the 10 yr auction went well while the 30 yr bond yesterday didn't see as much demand. Treasuries and mortgages lost ground yesterday; this mooring treasuries and mortgages are better on the CPI. Yesterday's increase in the producer price index rattled markets a little, today the CPI was tame and added some buying of treasuries and leading to increases in mortgage prices.
In Europe the economy is better than analysts were expecting; GDP in the 17 euro area rose 0.8% from the fourth quarter, powered by Germany and France. The German economy jumped 1.5% from the previous three months and French GDP grew 1.0%, exceeding economists’ median estimates of 0.9% and 0.6%, respectively. The better than expected growth has not filtered into our markets with US stock indexes opening weaker this morning.
At 9:30 the DJIA opened +13, the 10 yr note +7/32 at 3.20% -3 bp and mortgage prices +5/32 (.15 bp).
The final data point this week, at 9:55 the U. of Michigan consumer sentiment index for mid-May, expected at 69.5 frm 69.8, was higher at 72.4, the 12 month outlook 83 frm 74, current conditions 80.2 frm 82.5 Generally better than expected but no reaction to it in either equity indexes or the bond and mortgage markets.
The commodity markets continue to trade in volatile moves; today early crude oil ran back above $100.00 then backed off. Gold early unchanged. Political turmoil in the mid-East isn't cooling with increased fighting in Libya and Yemen will likely keep oil frm sliding with the weekend ahead.
Recently Bill Gross co-CEO of PIMCO was taken to the wood shed by media and traders at competing investment funds for saying PIMCO was shorting US treasuries; anti-American. Although PIMCO probably haven;t been short bonds recently, Gross took heat to his reputation. This morning Mohammad El Arian c0 CEO at PIMCO said the firm cantinas to believe there are better opportunities outside the US in other bond markets. That PIMCO is bearish on the US bond market while most others are slightly optimistic rates will continue to fall illustrates the divide that exists in the market now.
The 10 yr treasury still has momentum, the overbought technical condition we had been watching has now been alleviated, the note is no longer overbought based on our models, nevertheless the 10 is stuck at these levels, unable to break resistance at 3.14% set early in March. Mortgage rates also in the same situation and will not move much lower n rate unless the 10 yr note cracks and holds below 3.14% (currently at 3.19%). All that said, on the other perspective traders and investors are still holding firm with little momentary interest to abandon long bond market positions. No selling, and no buying keeping interest rates stable over the past week.
Anthony Hood
Equity Investment Capital
Office: 949-891-0067
Email: tony@equityinvestmentcapital.com
website: www.equityinvestmentcapital.com
Building Strong, Lasting Relationships; One Client at a Time.
Friday, May 13, 2011
Prior to 8:30 the interest rate markets were unchanged, at 8:30 April consumer price index was up 0.4% in line with forecasts, excluding food and energy +0.2% also about n line. Yr/yr overall CPI +3.2% up frm +2.7% in March, excluding food and energy +1.3% up frm +1.2% in March. The yr/yr CPI the highest in 3.5 years, mostly on oil and gasoline price increases. Inflation at the wholesale and intermediate levels is climbing but so far price increases have not yet filtered down to consumers, although the core did increase from March to April.
Treasury auctions are over now until a week after next, the 10 yr auction went well while the 30 yr bond yesterday didn't see as much demand. Treasuries and mortgages lost ground yesterday; this mooring treasuries and mortgages are better on the CPI. Yesterday's increase in the producer price index rattled markets a little, today the CPI was tame and added some buying of treasuries and leading to increases in mortgage prices.
In Europe the economy is better than analysts were expecting; GDP in the 17 euro area rose 0.8% from the fourth quarter, powered by Germany and France. The German economy jumped 1.5% from the previous three months and French GDP grew 1.0%, exceeding economists’ median estimates of 0.9% and 0.6%, respectively. The better than expected growth has not filtered into our markets with US stock indexes opening weaker this morning.
At 9:30 the DJIA opened +13, the 10 yr note +7/32 at 3.20% -3 bp and mortgage prices +5/32 (.15 bp).
The final data point this week, at 9:55 the U. of Michigan consumer sentiment index for mid-May, expected at 69.5 frm 69.8, was higher at 72.4, the 12 month outlook 83 frm 74, current conditions 80.2 frm 82.5 Generally better than expected but no reaction to it in either equity indexes or the bond and mortgage markets.
The commodity markets continue to trade in volatile moves; today early crude oil ran back above $100.00 then backed off. Gold early unchanged. Political turmoil in the mid-East isn't cooling with increased fighting in Libya and Yemen will likely keep oil frm sliding with the weekend ahead.
Recently Bill Gross co-CEO of PIMCO was taken to the wood shed by media and traders at competing investment funds for saying PIMCO was shorting US treasuries; anti-American. Although PIMCO probably haven;t been short bonds recently, Gross took heat to his reputation. This morning Mohammad El Arian c0 CEO at PIMCO said the firm cantinas to believe there are better opportunities outside the US in other bond markets. That PIMCO is bearish on the US bond market while most others are slightly optimistic rates will continue to fall illustrates the divide that exists in the market now.
The 10 yr treasury still has momentum, the overbought technical condition we had been watching has now been alleviated, the note is no longer overbought based on our models, nevertheless the 10 is stuck at these levels, unable to break resistance at 3.14% set early in March. Mortgage rates also in the same situation and will not move much lower n rate unless the 10 yr note cracks and holds below 3.14% (currently at 3.19%). All that said, on the other perspective traders and investors are still holding firm with little momentary interest to abandon long bond market positions. No selling, and no buying keeping interest rates stable over the past week.
Wednesday, May 11, 2011
Interest Rates
Anthony Hood
Equity Investment Capital
Office: 949-891-0067
Email: tony@equityinvestmentcapital.com
website: www.equityinvestmentcapital.com
Building Strong, Lasting Relationships; One Client at a Time.
Wednesday, May 11, 2011
Yesterday ended 8 straight days of improvement in the bond and mortgage markets, the 10 yr yield increased 5 bp and mortgages up 4 bp. This morning in early trading the 10 down 2/32 at 9:00 and mortgage prices down 3/32 (.09 bp). The 10 yr note driver for mortgages hit 3.14% the level hit in March and failed to break through for three days, the FNMA 4.0 coupon tested but couldn't break its 200 day moving average. Technical momentum oscillators have been in very overbought levels for 4 days. Unlikely the bullish longer term outlook will change but traders will be cautious here and prices may fall further.
At 8:30 the March international trade deficit was $48.18B, Feb deficit was $45.4B. The deficit was in line with forecasts and estimates, no reaction to it. High oil prices in March drove imports up eclipsing exports. Crude oil costs that surged above $100 a barrel for the first time in more than a year and a 9.4% drop in the dollar will probably keep driving up the cost of imports. The weaker dollar however will continue to support exports to emerging markets, China and India.
Mortgage applications increased 8.2% from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending May 6, 2011 on lower interest rates. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 8.2% on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. The Refinance Index increased 9.0% from the previous week, and is at its highest level since the week ending March 18, 2011. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 6.7% from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 7.1% compared with the previous week and was 25.8% lower than the same week one year ago. The four week moving average for the seasonally adjusted Market Index is up 2.9%. The four week moving average is up 0.4% for the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index, while this average is up 4.3% for the Refinance Index. The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 63.1% of total applications from 62.7% the previous week. The refinance share is at its highest level since the week ending March 25, 2011. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity decreased to 6.5% from 6.7% of total applications from the previous week. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 4.67% from 4.76%, with points increasing to 1.10 from 0.75 (including the origination fee) for 80% loans. The 30-year rate is at its lowest since December 2010. The average contract interest rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 3.81% from 3.96%, with points increasing to 1.05 from 0.82 (including the origination fee) for 80% loans. The 15-year rate is at its lowest since November 2010.
At 9:30 the DJIA opened down 46 points pulling the 10 yr note back to unchanged and mortgages just .03 bp lower from yesterday's close. With equity markets starting weaker and the dollar stronger mortgages and treasuries have gotten a boost from earlier lower prices, but with the 10 yr auction this afternoon the rate markets will likely sit still this morning.
At 1:00 pm Treasury will auction $24B of 10 yr notes, the demand will be critical to hold rates at these levels. In the meantime we don't look fro any market improvements into the auction, this afternoon after 1:00 look for increased trade on auction results.
At 2:00 this afternoon Treasury will report the April budget data, estimates are for a monthly deficit of $60.0B.
The dollar is stronger against the euro this morning. Bank of England Governor Mervyn King said that inflation remains “uncomfortably high,” and officials signaled they may need to raise interest rates later this year even as the economy struggles to build momentum. Inflation across the world is persisting, putting pressure on central banks to withdraw stimulus and raise interest rates. In China, inflation held above 5 percent in April and lending exceeded analysts’ estimates, according to reports today. Germany’s rate jumped to 2.7 percent, more than initially estimated, separate data released today showed.
Crude oil rallied yesterday, this morning down $1.79 at 9:45; choppy as markets continue to assess demand against supply. Higher margin costs have eliminated some speculators that do not have deep pockets; volatility increase also keeps specs from aggressive trading.
Anthony Hood
Equity Investment Capital
Office: 949-891-0067
Email: tony@equityinvestmentcapital.com
website: www.equityinvestmentcapital.com
Building Strong, Lasting Relationships; One Client at a Time.
Wednesday, May 11, 2011
Yesterday ended 8 straight days of improvement in the bond and mortgage markets, the 10 yr yield increased 5 bp and mortgages up 4 bp. This morning in early trading the 10 down 2/32 at 9:00 and mortgage prices down 3/32 (.09 bp). The 10 yr note driver for mortgages hit 3.14% the level hit in March and failed to break through for three days, the FNMA 4.0 coupon tested but couldn't break its 200 day moving average. Technical momentum oscillators have been in very overbought levels for 4 days. Unlikely the bullish longer term outlook will change but traders will be cautious here and prices may fall further.
At 8:30 the March international trade deficit was $48.18B, Feb deficit was $45.4B. The deficit was in line with forecasts and estimates, no reaction to it. High oil prices in March drove imports up eclipsing exports. Crude oil costs that surged above $100 a barrel for the first time in more than a year and a 9.4% drop in the dollar will probably keep driving up the cost of imports. The weaker dollar however will continue to support exports to emerging markets, China and India.
Mortgage applications increased 8.2% from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending May 6, 2011 on lower interest rates. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 8.2% on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. The Refinance Index increased 9.0% from the previous week, and is at its highest level since the week ending March 18, 2011. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 6.7% from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 7.1% compared with the previous week and was 25.8% lower than the same week one year ago. The four week moving average for the seasonally adjusted Market Index is up 2.9%. The four week moving average is up 0.4% for the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index, while this average is up 4.3% for the Refinance Index. The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 63.1% of total applications from 62.7% the previous week. The refinance share is at its highest level since the week ending March 25, 2011. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity decreased to 6.5% from 6.7% of total applications from the previous week. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 4.67% from 4.76%, with points increasing to 1.10 from 0.75 (including the origination fee) for 80% loans. The 30-year rate is at its lowest since December 2010. The average contract interest rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 3.81% from 3.96%, with points increasing to 1.05 from 0.82 (including the origination fee) for 80% loans. The 15-year rate is at its lowest since November 2010.
At 9:30 the DJIA opened down 46 points pulling the 10 yr note back to unchanged and mortgages just .03 bp lower from yesterday's close. With equity markets starting weaker and the dollar stronger mortgages and treasuries have gotten a boost from earlier lower prices, but with the 10 yr auction this afternoon the rate markets will likely sit still this morning.
At 1:00 pm Treasury will auction $24B of 10 yr notes, the demand will be critical to hold rates at these levels. In the meantime we don't look fro any market improvements into the auction, this afternoon after 1:00 look for increased trade on auction results.
At 2:00 this afternoon Treasury will report the April budget data, estimates are for a monthly deficit of $60.0B.
The dollar is stronger against the euro this morning. Bank of England Governor Mervyn King said that inflation remains “uncomfortably high,” and officials signaled they may need to raise interest rates later this year even as the economy struggles to build momentum. Inflation across the world is persisting, putting pressure on central banks to withdraw stimulus and raise interest rates. In China, inflation held above 5 percent in April and lending exceeded analysts’ estimates, according to reports today. Germany’s rate jumped to 2.7 percent, more than initially estimated, separate data released today showed.
Crude oil rallied yesterday, this morning down $1.79 at 9:45; choppy as markets continue to assess demand against supply. Higher margin costs have eliminated some speculators that do not have deep pockets; volatility increase also keeps specs from aggressive trading.
Tuesday, May 10, 2011
Interest Rates
Anthony Hood
Equity Investment Capital
Office: 949-891-0067
Email: tony@equityinvestmentcapital.com
website: www.equityinvestmentcapital.com
Building Strong, Lasting Relationships; One Client at a Time.
Tuesday, May 10, 2011
Treasuries and mortgages continue to hold gains but fractionally lower early this morning; no selling just no buying ahead of today's $32B 3 yr note auction at 1:00. At 8:30 April import prices were reported up 2.2% and +11.1% yr/yr, export prices +1.1%; no noticeable reaction to the data. Earlier this morning the NFIB reported small business optimism declined again, at 91.2 in April frm 91.9 in March and the lowest reading since last October. The survey indicated small business owners concerned over inflation and the weakening economy; again no noticeable reaction.
At 9:30 the DJIA opened +23, the 10 yr note -4/32 at 3.17% +1 bp and mortgage prices -1/32 (.06 bp). Not much that can move markets today, similar to yesterday. Technically overbought bond and mortgage markets but the outlook is so bullish that traders see little reason so far to take profits. One factor we are watching, increasing margin rates for all commodities that are making it more expensive to participate in gold, silver, crude and others, pushing traders and investors out and into treasuries that are widely believed to move lower in rates. This morning the NYMEX announced crude oil margins will increase 25% at the end of the day today.
Republican congressional leaders are ruling out tax increases or a wider revenue base in talks on extending the U.S. government’s borrowing authority, creating a conflict with Democrats who would raise more money as well as cut spending. House speaker Boehner predicted that Congress would act on a broader revision of the tax code in the next two years, though he said that Republicans wouldn’t support it “as a way of increasing taxes on the American people or enterprises.” Boehner said that “without significant spending cuts and reforms to reduce our debt, there will be no debt limit increase.” Spending cuts “should be greater” than the amount of the “increase in debt authority” given to President Barack Obama, he said.
The ECB is working on another loan plan for Greece. Another loan package will buy time for Greece and the potential for a default will be pushed back, still no assurance that Greece will make in through; there is a meeting of the ECB coming on Monday to work out the plan. The International Monetary Fund also is arranging new aid for Greece, an 80 billion-euro ($115B) to 100 billion-euro plan. Greece’s money managers are warning of damage to an already crippled economy should European leaders move to restructure the country’s debt.
At 10:00 another data point that will go with little notice; March wholesale inventories, expected up 1.0%, were up 1.1%.
At 1:00 Treasury begins its quarterly refunding with $32B of 3 yr notes, given the strength in the rate markets the auction should see good demand. Tomorrow it is $24B of 10 yr notes that could be a problem; if however the auction is well bid the 10 will likely resume its rate decline and push mortgage rates lower with it. Recent activity in the MBS markets has been a little better than treasuries with good demand for FHA paper.
Crude oil is lower today after running up almost to recent highs at $114.00+; this morning with margin rates going up at the end of the session crude is down $0.57.
Anthony Hood
Equity Investment Capital
Office: 949-891-0067
Email: tony@equityinvestmentcapital.com
website: www.equityinvestmentcapital.com
Building Strong, Lasting Relationships; One Client at a Time.
Tuesday, May 10, 2011
Treasuries and mortgages continue to hold gains but fractionally lower early this morning; no selling just no buying ahead of today's $32B 3 yr note auction at 1:00. At 8:30 April import prices were reported up 2.2% and +11.1% yr/yr, export prices +1.1%; no noticeable reaction to the data. Earlier this morning the NFIB reported small business optimism declined again, at 91.2 in April frm 91.9 in March and the lowest reading since last October. The survey indicated small business owners concerned over inflation and the weakening economy; again no noticeable reaction.
At 9:30 the DJIA opened +23, the 10 yr note -4/32 at 3.17% +1 bp and mortgage prices -1/32 (.06 bp). Not much that can move markets today, similar to yesterday. Technically overbought bond and mortgage markets but the outlook is so bullish that traders see little reason so far to take profits. One factor we are watching, increasing margin rates for all commodities that are making it more expensive to participate in gold, silver, crude and others, pushing traders and investors out and into treasuries that are widely believed to move lower in rates. This morning the NYMEX announced crude oil margins will increase 25% at the end of the day today.
Republican congressional leaders are ruling out tax increases or a wider revenue base in talks on extending the U.S. government’s borrowing authority, creating a conflict with Democrats who would raise more money as well as cut spending. House speaker Boehner predicted that Congress would act on a broader revision of the tax code in the next two years, though he said that Republicans wouldn’t support it “as a way of increasing taxes on the American people or enterprises.” Boehner said that “without significant spending cuts and reforms to reduce our debt, there will be no debt limit increase.” Spending cuts “should be greater” than the amount of the “increase in debt authority” given to President Barack Obama, he said.
The ECB is working on another loan plan for Greece. Another loan package will buy time for Greece and the potential for a default will be pushed back, still no assurance that Greece will make in through; there is a meeting of the ECB coming on Monday to work out the plan. The International Monetary Fund also is arranging new aid for Greece, an 80 billion-euro ($115B) to 100 billion-euro plan. Greece’s money managers are warning of damage to an already crippled economy should European leaders move to restructure the country’s debt.
At 10:00 another data point that will go with little notice; March wholesale inventories, expected up 1.0%, were up 1.1%.
At 1:00 Treasury begins its quarterly refunding with $32B of 3 yr notes, given the strength in the rate markets the auction should see good demand. Tomorrow it is $24B of 10 yr notes that could be a problem; if however the auction is well bid the 10 will likely resume its rate decline and push mortgage rates lower with it. Recent activity in the MBS markets has been a little better than treasuries with good demand for FHA paper.
Crude oil is lower today after running up almost to recent highs at $114.00+; this morning with margin rates going up at the end of the session crude is down $0.57.
Monday, May 9, 2011
Mortgage Rates
Anthony Hood
Equity Investment Capital
Office: 949-891-0067
Email: tony@equityinvestmentcapital.com
website: www.equityinvestmentcapital.com
Building Strong, Lasting Relationships; One Client at a Time.
Monday, May 09, 2011
Treasuries and mortgages opened soft early this morning but by 9:00 were recovering with only minor price declines. No scheduled data today; most attention focused on the dollar and continuing concerns over Greece's debt. There was no additional news from the ECB or Greece over the weekend however. Last week the euro fell the most in a week since back in 2008 with concerns Greece would not be able to survive in the EU, this morning the dollar is slightly weaker against the currency. A weakening dollar continues to support US bond markets.
Crude oil fell almost $17.00, gold dropped $65.00, all commodities declined last week as most of the markets had become way to frothy leading the exchanges to increase margin rates. This morning crude started up over $2.00 but since has backed of a little, volatility in crude should be expected this week, the same with gold and silver and the rate markets. The economic outlook is being adjusted lower taking any concerns about inflation off the table. Some pundits beginning to talk about anther easing move from the Fed as the economic outlook deteriorated last week. Although the April employment report headlines were much better than thought (non-farm private jobs up 268K), markets generally ignored it; Friday no change in rates and only an anemic close for equity markets.
Treasury will conduct its quarterly refunding beginning tomorrow, auctioning $72B of 3 yr, 10 yr and 30 yr notes and bonds. We expect good demand for all three auctions with global economic outlooks softening and inflation fears that come and go are now less threatening.
This Week's Economic Calendar:
Tuesday;
8:30 am April export and import prices (N/A)
10:00 am Mar wholesale inventories (+1.0%)
1:00 pm $32B 3 yr note auction
Wednesday;
7:00 am Weekly MBA mortgage applications
8:30 am Mar Trade balance (-$47.7B)
1:00 pm $24B 10 yr note auction
Thursday;
8:30 am weekly jobless claims (-51K to 423K; con't claims 3.70 mil frm 3.733 mil last week)
April PPI (+0.5%; ex food and energy +0.2%)
April retail sales (+0.6%; ex auto sales +0.5%)
10:00 am Mar business inventories (+0.9%)
1:00 pm $16B 30 yr bond auction
Friday;
8:30 am April CPI (+0.4%, ex food and energy +0.1%)
9:55 am U. of Michigan consumer sentiment index (69.5 frm 69.8)
The DJIA opened at 9:30 +14, mortgage prices -1/32 (.03 bp).
Technicals in the bond and mortgage markets remain overbought, possibly some pullback and consolidation here but the markets are quite bullish presently, as long as that continues not much retreat in the bond market. This week will likely be marked with increased market volatility.
Anthony Hood
Equity Investment Capital
Office: 949-891-0067
Email: tony@equityinvestmentcapital.com
website: www.equityinvestmentcapital.com
Building Strong, Lasting Relationships; One Client at a Time.
Monday, May 09, 2011
Treasuries and mortgages opened soft early this morning but by 9:00 were recovering with only minor price declines. No scheduled data today; most attention focused on the dollar and continuing concerns over Greece's debt. There was no additional news from the ECB or Greece over the weekend however. Last week the euro fell the most in a week since back in 2008 with concerns Greece would not be able to survive in the EU, this morning the dollar is slightly weaker against the currency. A weakening dollar continues to support US bond markets.
Crude oil fell almost $17.00, gold dropped $65.00, all commodities declined last week as most of the markets had become way to frothy leading the exchanges to increase margin rates. This morning crude started up over $2.00 but since has backed of a little, volatility in crude should be expected this week, the same with gold and silver and the rate markets. The economic outlook is being adjusted lower taking any concerns about inflation off the table. Some pundits beginning to talk about anther easing move from the Fed as the economic outlook deteriorated last week. Although the April employment report headlines were much better than thought (non-farm private jobs up 268K), markets generally ignored it; Friday no change in rates and only an anemic close for equity markets.
Treasury will conduct its quarterly refunding beginning tomorrow, auctioning $72B of 3 yr, 10 yr and 30 yr notes and bonds. We expect good demand for all three auctions with global economic outlooks softening and inflation fears that come and go are now less threatening.
This Week's Economic Calendar:
Tuesday;
8:30 am April export and import prices (N/A)
10:00 am Mar wholesale inventories (+1.0%)
1:00 pm $32B 3 yr note auction
Wednesday;
7:00 am Weekly MBA mortgage applications
8:30 am Mar Trade balance (-$47.7B)
1:00 pm $24B 10 yr note auction
Thursday;
8:30 am weekly jobless claims (-51K to 423K; con't claims 3.70 mil frm 3.733 mil last week)
April PPI (+0.5%; ex food and energy +0.2%)
April retail sales (+0.6%; ex auto sales +0.5%)
10:00 am Mar business inventories (+0.9%)
1:00 pm $16B 30 yr bond auction
Friday;
8:30 am April CPI (+0.4%, ex food and energy +0.1%)
9:55 am U. of Michigan consumer sentiment index (69.5 frm 69.8)
The DJIA opened at 9:30 +14, mortgage prices -1/32 (.03 bp).
Technicals in the bond and mortgage markets remain overbought, possibly some pullback and consolidation here but the markets are quite bullish presently, as long as that continues not much retreat in the bond market. This week will likely be marked with increased market volatility.
Saturday, May 7, 2011
Friday, May 6, 2011
Mortgage Rates
Anthony Hood
Equity Investment Capital
Office: 949-891-0067
Email: tony@equityinvestmentcapital.com
website: www.equityinvestmentcapital.com
Building Strong, Lasting Relationships; One Client at a Time.
Friday, May 06, 2011
The monthly BLS employment report generally does not disappoint when it comes to volatility and data that is well off the mark; once again this morning it held to its pattern. Non-farm payrolls were widely expected up 185K to 200K, as reported NFP jobs increased 244K in April. Non-farm private jobs were expected up 200K, as reported up 268K, the biggest monthly increase since Feb 2006. The unemployment rate was expected unchanged at 8.8%, as reported up to 9.0%. The average hourly earnings was thought up 0.2%, as reported +0.1%.
Employment in April was up across the band of specific jobs; retail jobs increased 57,100 the largest increase since April of 2000; manufacturing +29K, goods producing +44K, service-providing +224K, government jobs down 24K. Those unemployed fro more than 27 weeks declined to 5.839 mil frm 6.122 mil in March. The U-6 unemployment rate at 15.9%; U-6 measures total unemployment, plus all personnel marginally attached to labor force and total employed part time plus all persons marginally employed.
The obvious reaction to the stronger employment report sent rate markets higher in rate, lower in prices. Although the 10 yr note rate jumped from 3.16% at the close yesterday, at 9:00 it was up to 3.22% essentially erasing all of the gains yesterday. Mortgage prices yesterday were up 16/32 (.50 bp), at 9:15 this morning down 10/32 (.31 bp).
Treasuries and mortgage rates moving lower, mostly safety moves as commodity prices collapsing after the two month rallies that pushed most all commodity prices to excessive levels forcing trading exchanges to move margins higher. The commodity price increases were driven by growing concerns inflation would take hold, became well overbought by speculators; with exchanges increasing margins many were forced out driving prices down hard. Gold, silver, oil lead the way lower yesterday in mass liquidation adding to the recent decline in rates.
The recent decline in rates is reflecting a more placid view of inflation which had been gaining momentum in the markets for the past two month, and the reality that the US economy isn't and won't be as strong as was thought earlier this year. In Europe the ECB started increasing rates a month ago to combat inflationary pressures and until yesterday's ECB meeting it was consensus that the bank would continue. Jean-Claude Trichet, ECB head, implied yesterday that the bank may not increase rates as inflation pressures are expected to ease. Here in the US not many were buying into Bernanke's view that commodity prices were "transitory" and wouldn't drive inflation up, yesterday's commodity sell-off made a lot of believers.
Weaker expectations for growth in the economy raising concerns that equity markets may be too lofty, lowering inflation fears, and the momentary belief the Fed will keep rates low and possibly have to step up for a Q 2.5; all have been catalysts for the recent decline in rates. While we all applaud it, the bond market still has a lot to consider if rates are to remain at these lows.
This morning crude oil continues to decline, silver lower but gold higher. The DJIA opened +107; the 10 yr -17/32 3.22% +6 bp and mortgage prices -9/32 (.28 bp). (see below for 10:00 levels). The recent decline in rates has the bond market overbought technically, expect some consolidation here and some minor back-up in rates. The next week or so will be marked with an increase in volatility with wider intraday trading ranges; however the wider outlook will likely remain bullish with the uncertainty about the economy and the commodity markets, already this morning the bond and mortgage markets are well off initial low prices on the employment data.
Later this afternoon at 3:00 March consumer credit data; one of our favorite measurements of consumer sentiment. Forecasts are for credit to have expanded by $5B.
Anthony Hood
Equity Investment Capital
Office: 949-891-0067
Email: tony@equityinvestmentcapital.com
website: www.equityinvestmentcapital.com
Building Strong, Lasting Relationships; One Client at a Time.
Friday, May 06, 2011
The monthly BLS employment report generally does not disappoint when it comes to volatility and data that is well off the mark; once again this morning it held to its pattern. Non-farm payrolls were widely expected up 185K to 200K, as reported NFP jobs increased 244K in April. Non-farm private jobs were expected up 200K, as reported up 268K, the biggest monthly increase since Feb 2006. The unemployment rate was expected unchanged at 8.8%, as reported up to 9.0%. The average hourly earnings was thought up 0.2%, as reported +0.1%.
Employment in April was up across the band of specific jobs; retail jobs increased 57,100 the largest increase since April of 2000; manufacturing +29K, goods producing +44K, service-providing +224K, government jobs down 24K. Those unemployed fro more than 27 weeks declined to 5.839 mil frm 6.122 mil in March. The U-6 unemployment rate at 15.9%; U-6 measures total unemployment, plus all personnel marginally attached to labor force and total employed part time plus all persons marginally employed.
The obvious reaction to the stronger employment report sent rate markets higher in rate, lower in prices. Although the 10 yr note rate jumped from 3.16% at the close yesterday, at 9:00 it was up to 3.22% essentially erasing all of the gains yesterday. Mortgage prices yesterday were up 16/32 (.50 bp), at 9:15 this morning down 10/32 (.31 bp).
Treasuries and mortgage rates moving lower, mostly safety moves as commodity prices collapsing after the two month rallies that pushed most all commodity prices to excessive levels forcing trading exchanges to move margins higher. The commodity price increases were driven by growing concerns inflation would take hold, became well overbought by speculators; with exchanges increasing margins many were forced out driving prices down hard. Gold, silver, oil lead the way lower yesterday in mass liquidation adding to the recent decline in rates.
The recent decline in rates is reflecting a more placid view of inflation which had been gaining momentum in the markets for the past two month, and the reality that the US economy isn't and won't be as strong as was thought earlier this year. In Europe the ECB started increasing rates a month ago to combat inflationary pressures and until yesterday's ECB meeting it was consensus that the bank would continue. Jean-Claude Trichet, ECB head, implied yesterday that the bank may not increase rates as inflation pressures are expected to ease. Here in the US not many were buying into Bernanke's view that commodity prices were "transitory" and wouldn't drive inflation up, yesterday's commodity sell-off made a lot of believers.
Weaker expectations for growth in the economy raising concerns that equity markets may be too lofty, lowering inflation fears, and the momentary belief the Fed will keep rates low and possibly have to step up for a Q 2.5; all have been catalysts for the recent decline in rates. While we all applaud it, the bond market still has a lot to consider if rates are to remain at these lows.
This morning crude oil continues to decline, silver lower but gold higher. The DJIA opened +107; the 10 yr -17/32 3.22% +6 bp and mortgage prices -9/32 (.28 bp). (see below for 10:00 levels). The recent decline in rates has the bond market overbought technically, expect some consolidation here and some minor back-up in rates. The next week or so will be marked with an increase in volatility with wider intraday trading ranges; however the wider outlook will likely remain bullish with the uncertainty about the economy and the commodity markets, already this morning the bond and mortgage markets are well off initial low prices on the employment data.
Later this afternoon at 3:00 March consumer credit data; one of our favorite measurements of consumer sentiment. Forecasts are for credit to have expanded by $5B.
Thursday, May 5, 2011
Mortgage Rates
Anthony Hood
Equity Investment Capital
Office: 949-891-0067
Email: tony@equityinvestmentcapital.com
website: www.equityinvestmentcapital.com
Building Strong, Lasting Relationships; One Client at a Time.
Thursday, May 05, 2011
Treasuries and mortgage markets better again this morning with the stock market weaker. Crude oil, gold, silver and other commodities lower as the commodity bubble continues to burst. At 8:30 more bad news for the economy, weekly jobless claims were expected to have declined 29K they increased 43K to 474K, the biggest increase since Aug 2010. Continuing claims increased to 3.733 mil frm 3.659 mil. The 4 wk average now at 431,250; 400K is considered pivotal by many analysts, not sure why other than its an easy rounded number. A huge shock to markets with many still professing economic improvement; that view has been shaken badly in the past week and is turning markets around quickly. Although the headline hit hard there were some seasonal factors that may have exaggerated the increase; a spring break holiday in New York, a new emergency benefits program in Oregon and auto shutdowns caused by the disaster in Japan were the main reasons for the surge.
Q1 preliminary productivity increased 1.6% a little better than expected (+1.0%) but weaker than Q4 2010 at 2.6%. Q1 unit labor costs were up 1.0% a tad higher than thought (+0.8%), costs in Q4 were down 0.6%.
Crude oil last Friday traded at $114.00, this morning $106.00; gold last Friday $1560.00, now $1504.00, silver, copper and other commodities all reversing after months of increased prices. Markets seem to go from one bubble to the next, the commodity bubble being the latest and now bursting.
The Bank of England kept its benchmark interest rate at a record low (0.5%) as signs the recovery is losing momentum kept a majority of policy makers focused on stimulating growth during the government’s fiscal squeeze.
Jean-Claude Trichet, ECB chief left interest rates unchanged after recent increases to fight off inflation. He said the bank will monitor upside inflation risks “very closely,” suggesting it may wait until after June to raise interest rates again. “It is essential that recent price developments do not give rise to broad-based inflationary pressures,” Trichet commented after leaving rates unchanged at 1.25%. Central banks in the Philippines and Malaysia today raised interest rates, and India this week increased its borrowing costs for the ninth time since March 2010. Rates in China, may rise further after its central bank said yesterday that taming inflation is its top priority.
The bond and mortgage markets are better this morning but have already slipped back from their best levels at 9:00 after the data at 8:30. The 10 hit 3.17% at 9:00, at 9:30 3.19%; mortgage prices at 9:00 +8/32 (.25 bp), at 9:30 +4/32 (.12 bp). The technical's are in overbought levels on the momentum oscillators and relative strength index, the potential of some consolidation exists now. At 9:30 the DJIA opened -51, as long as the indexes are weaker the bond and mortgage markets should hold gains; any recovery in equities with bond mkt overbought will likely pressure prices in mortgages. The wider perspective remains positive, however at present low yields we wonder how much lower rates can fall.
Nothing left today in terms of scheduled news; the rest of the day will be guided by the equity market trading. Tomorrow the April employment report which now is expected to show less job growth than was expected earlier this week after the ADP report yesterday and the increase in weekly claims last week and this week although today's claims are not part of the data gathered for tomorrow's report.
Anthony Hood
Equity Investment Capital
Office: 949-891-0067
Email: tony@equityinvestmentcapital.com
website: www.equityinvestmentcapital.com
Building Strong, Lasting Relationships; One Client at a Time.
Thursday, May 05, 2011
Treasuries and mortgage markets better again this morning with the stock market weaker. Crude oil, gold, silver and other commodities lower as the commodity bubble continues to burst. At 8:30 more bad news for the economy, weekly jobless claims were expected to have declined 29K they increased 43K to 474K, the biggest increase since Aug 2010. Continuing claims increased to 3.733 mil frm 3.659 mil. The 4 wk average now at 431,250; 400K is considered pivotal by many analysts, not sure why other than its an easy rounded number. A huge shock to markets with many still professing economic improvement; that view has been shaken badly in the past week and is turning markets around quickly. Although the headline hit hard there were some seasonal factors that may have exaggerated the increase; a spring break holiday in New York, a new emergency benefits program in Oregon and auto shutdowns caused by the disaster in Japan were the main reasons for the surge.
Q1 preliminary productivity increased 1.6% a little better than expected (+1.0%) but weaker than Q4 2010 at 2.6%. Q1 unit labor costs were up 1.0% a tad higher than thought (+0.8%), costs in Q4 were down 0.6%.
Crude oil last Friday traded at $114.00, this morning $106.00; gold last Friday $1560.00, now $1504.00, silver, copper and other commodities all reversing after months of increased prices. Markets seem to go from one bubble to the next, the commodity bubble being the latest and now bursting.
The Bank of England kept its benchmark interest rate at a record low (0.5%) as signs the recovery is losing momentum kept a majority of policy makers focused on stimulating growth during the government’s fiscal squeeze.
Jean-Claude Trichet, ECB chief left interest rates unchanged after recent increases to fight off inflation. He said the bank will monitor upside inflation risks “very closely,” suggesting it may wait until after June to raise interest rates again. “It is essential that recent price developments do not give rise to broad-based inflationary pressures,” Trichet commented after leaving rates unchanged at 1.25%. Central banks in the Philippines and Malaysia today raised interest rates, and India this week increased its borrowing costs for the ninth time since March 2010. Rates in China, may rise further after its central bank said yesterday that taming inflation is its top priority.
The bond and mortgage markets are better this morning but have already slipped back from their best levels at 9:00 after the data at 8:30. The 10 hit 3.17% at 9:00, at 9:30 3.19%; mortgage prices at 9:00 +8/32 (.25 bp), at 9:30 +4/32 (.12 bp). The technical's are in overbought levels on the momentum oscillators and relative strength index, the potential of some consolidation exists now. At 9:30 the DJIA opened -51, as long as the indexes are weaker the bond and mortgage markets should hold gains; any recovery in equities with bond mkt overbought will likely pressure prices in mortgages. The wider perspective remains positive, however at present low yields we wonder how much lower rates can fall.
Nothing left today in terms of scheduled news; the rest of the day will be guided by the equity market trading. Tomorrow the April employment report which now is expected to show less job growth than was expected earlier this week after the ADP report yesterday and the increase in weekly claims last week and this week although today's claims are not part of the data gathered for tomorrow's report.
Wednesday, May 4, 2011
Mortgage Rates
Anthony Hood
Equity Investment Capital
Office: 949-891-0067
Email: tony@equityinvestmentcapital.com
website: www.equityinvestmentcapital.com
Building Strong, Lasting Relationships; One Client at a Time.
Wednesday, May 04, 2011
Slightly weaker this morning in the bond and mortgage markets after the 10 yr hit 3.25% yesterday, more of a psychological level than technical but still a level that may be tested before it tries breaking lower. The outlook for lower rates remains in tact, however at these levels to work lower won't be an easy ride.
ADP reported its estimate for non-farm private jobs at 8:15 this morning; 179K jobs is their estimate, forecasts were for 200K. The increase in April is the lowest estimate from ADP this year and emphasizes employment gains are far below what is needed to get the economy growing. This recession is the worst in 60 years and recovery will take much longer than in past recessions. Not much of surprise given the collapsed housing sector and increasing numbers of job losses that will be permanent. Friday the official BLS employment data, estimates are still for +183K non-farm job growth and +200K non-farm private jobs with unemployment at 8.8% unchanged from March.
At 10:00 April ISM services sector index expected unchanged at 57.3 in March; it was lower at 52.8. The weaker services sector rallied the bond market and dropped equity indexes.
Treasury announced next week's quarterly refunding; $32B of 3 yr notes, $24B of 10 yr notes, and $16B of 30 yr bonds.
Boston Fed Pres. Rosengren, in a speech this morning made the case that interest rates will likely remain low for quite awhile: "So with significant slack in labor markets, stable inflation expectations, and core inflation well below our longer run target, there is currently no reason to slow the economy down with tighter monetary policy. Until we make more progress on both elements of the Federal Reserve's mandate-employment and inflation- the current, accommodative stance of monetary policy is appropriate." Rosengren is not a voter on the FOMC, he states the case against all the recent fears coming from markets that inflation is a worrying point. One more voice in the cacophony of opinions' presently being debated.
The weekly MBA mortgage applications out early this morning. The Market Composite Index increased 4.0% on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. The Refinance Index increased 6.0% from the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 0.3% from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index was 36.9% lower than the same week one year ago. The four week moving average for the seasonally adjusted Market Index is down 0.9%. The four week moving average is down 2.4% for the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index, while this average remained unchanged for the Refinance Index. The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 62.7% of total applications from 61.6% the previous week. This is the highest refinance share of the month. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity increased to 6.7% from 6.5% of total applications from the previous week. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased for the third consecutive week to 4.76% from 4.80%, with points decreasing to 0.76 from 1.00 (including the origination fee) for 80% loans. This is the lowest 30-year fixed contract rate since December 3, 2010. The average contract interest rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 3.96% from 4.03%, with points decreasing to 0.82 from 0.96 (including the origination fee) for 80% loans. This is the lowest 15-year fixed contract rate since November 26, 2010.
Anthony Hood
Equity Investment Capital
Office: 949-891-0067
Email: tony@equityinvestmentcapital.com
website: www.equityinvestmentcapital.com
Building Strong, Lasting Relationships; One Client at a Time.
Wednesday, May 04, 2011
Slightly weaker this morning in the bond and mortgage markets after the 10 yr hit 3.25% yesterday, more of a psychological level than technical but still a level that may be tested before it tries breaking lower. The outlook for lower rates remains in tact, however at these levels to work lower won't be an easy ride.
ADP reported its estimate for non-farm private jobs at 8:15 this morning; 179K jobs is their estimate, forecasts were for 200K. The increase in April is the lowest estimate from ADP this year and emphasizes employment gains are far below what is needed to get the economy growing. This recession is the worst in 60 years and recovery will take much longer than in past recessions. Not much of surprise given the collapsed housing sector and increasing numbers of job losses that will be permanent. Friday the official BLS employment data, estimates are still for +183K non-farm job growth and +200K non-farm private jobs with unemployment at 8.8% unchanged from March.
At 10:00 April ISM services sector index expected unchanged at 57.3 in March; it was lower at 52.8. The weaker services sector rallied the bond market and dropped equity indexes.
Treasury announced next week's quarterly refunding; $32B of 3 yr notes, $24B of 10 yr notes, and $16B of 30 yr bonds.
Boston Fed Pres. Rosengren, in a speech this morning made the case that interest rates will likely remain low for quite awhile: "So with significant slack in labor markets, stable inflation expectations, and core inflation well below our longer run target, there is currently no reason to slow the economy down with tighter monetary policy. Until we make more progress on both elements of the Federal Reserve's mandate-employment and inflation- the current, accommodative stance of monetary policy is appropriate." Rosengren is not a voter on the FOMC, he states the case against all the recent fears coming from markets that inflation is a worrying point. One more voice in the cacophony of opinions' presently being debated.
The weekly MBA mortgage applications out early this morning. The Market Composite Index increased 4.0% on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. The Refinance Index increased 6.0% from the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 0.3% from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index was 36.9% lower than the same week one year ago. The four week moving average for the seasonally adjusted Market Index is down 0.9%. The four week moving average is down 2.4% for the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index, while this average remained unchanged for the Refinance Index. The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 62.7% of total applications from 61.6% the previous week. This is the highest refinance share of the month. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity increased to 6.7% from 6.5% of total applications from the previous week. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased for the third consecutive week to 4.76% from 4.80%, with points decreasing to 0.76 from 1.00 (including the origination fee) for 80% loans. This is the lowest 30-year fixed contract rate since December 3, 2010. The average contract interest rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 3.96% from 4.03%, with points decreasing to 0.82 from 0.96 (including the origination fee) for 80% loans. This is the lowest 15-year fixed contract rate since November 26, 2010.
Tuesday, May 3, 2011
Mortgage Rates
Anthony Hood
Equity Investment Capital
Office: 949-891-0067
Email: tony@equityinvestmentcapital.com
website: www.equityinvestmentcapital.com
Building Strong, Lasting Relationships; One Client at a Time.
Tuesday, May 03, 2011
A better start this morning after a generally unchanged session yesterday. Markets working on the after impact (if any) frm the news Osama is dead. Yesterday the equity markets made an attempt to rally on relief but ended the session slightly weaker, the bond and mortgage markets saw no safe haven moves based on the view that Islamic terrorists would take revenge in the US with attacks. Crude oil ended lower as did gold; it appears that killing Bin Laden has had little impact. Had we gotten him seven yrs ago it may have had a different impact. After 10 yrs markets and the economy have moved on. High kudos to the Seals and intel agencies, and the President but markets are non-plused.
This morning crude oil started down $1.50 after falling $0.80 yesterday; gold yesterday down about $11.00 early this morning down another $13.00. Stock indexes early pointed to a weaker open. The 10 yr note at 9:00 was hitting open its key resistance at 3.25%.
Markets, whether interest rates, equities, oil or gold working on two issues. On one hand the economic outlook in the US is being ratcheted lower from early estimates this year, on the other concerns that terrorists will launch retaliatory attacks on the US Bin Laden had always encouraged hitting oil targets to cripple Europe and the US. So far there has been nothing coming from any terrorist cell and Bin Laden's family is advocating no retaliatory moves.
The Johnson Redbook retail sales report released this morning showed sales were up 5.5% from this week last year. The Goldman Sachs retail sales were up just 2.8% yr/yr. Easter buying is distorting both reports with Easter much later this yr than last.
At 9:30 the DJIA opened -8, the 10 yr note +5/32 at 3.26% -2 bp and mortgage prices up 3/32 (.09 bp).
At 10:00 March factory orders, expected up 1.9%, jumped 3.0% and Feb revised from -0.1% to +0.7%; ex transportation orders up 2.6%. Mar durable goods orders were revised to +2.9% frm +2.5%. Treasuries and mortgages slipped a couple of 32nds on the news.
So far markets have not been unusually disturbed one way or the other over the Bin Laden news. Unless there is an unexpected event attention will turn back to domestic issues; Friday is employment with non-farm private jobs expected to have increased by 200K with unemployment unchanged at 8.8%. Tim Geithner said yesterday he can keep the government from shutting down until August 2nd using what treasury always has in the past, accounting moves. With more time can Congress and the Administration find common ground on cutting spending and likely increase the debt ceiling?
No noticeable moves into treasuries on safety concerns after "The Killing"; no reaction in the equity markets either. In commodities gold is falling back but so far it isn't anything more than what could be expected after the recent spike; crude oil backing off on weaker economic forecasts and no outward fear of any additional disruptions in supply. Over $4.00 demand will decline for gasoline.
The 10 yr note, driver for mortgages is at its resistance at 3.25%, with employment on Friday rate markets may hold here or back up a little. Rates have fallen substantially over the past month, to expect that to continue employment will have to be weaker and equity markets suffer further selling.
Anthony Hood
Equity Investment Capital
Office: 949-891-0067
Email: tony@equityinvestmentcapital.com
website: www.equityinvestmentcapital.com
Building Strong, Lasting Relationships; One Client at a Time.
Tuesday, May 03, 2011
A better start this morning after a generally unchanged session yesterday. Markets working on the after impact (if any) frm the news Osama is dead. Yesterday the equity markets made an attempt to rally on relief but ended the session slightly weaker, the bond and mortgage markets saw no safe haven moves based on the view that Islamic terrorists would take revenge in the US with attacks. Crude oil ended lower as did gold; it appears that killing Bin Laden has had little impact. Had we gotten him seven yrs ago it may have had a different impact. After 10 yrs markets and the economy have moved on. High kudos to the Seals and intel agencies, and the President but markets are non-plused.
This morning crude oil started down $1.50 after falling $0.80 yesterday; gold yesterday down about $11.00 early this morning down another $13.00. Stock indexes early pointed to a weaker open. The 10 yr note at 9:00 was hitting open its key resistance at 3.25%.
Markets, whether interest rates, equities, oil or gold working on two issues. On one hand the economic outlook in the US is being ratcheted lower from early estimates this year, on the other concerns that terrorists will launch retaliatory attacks on the US Bin Laden had always encouraged hitting oil targets to cripple Europe and the US. So far there has been nothing coming from any terrorist cell and Bin Laden's family is advocating no retaliatory moves.
The Johnson Redbook retail sales report released this morning showed sales were up 5.5% from this week last year. The Goldman Sachs retail sales were up just 2.8% yr/yr. Easter buying is distorting both reports with Easter much later this yr than last.
At 9:30 the DJIA opened -8, the 10 yr note +5/32 at 3.26% -2 bp and mortgage prices up 3/32 (.09 bp).
At 10:00 March factory orders, expected up 1.9%, jumped 3.0% and Feb revised from -0.1% to +0.7%; ex transportation orders up 2.6%. Mar durable goods orders were revised to +2.9% frm +2.5%. Treasuries and mortgages slipped a couple of 32nds on the news.
So far markets have not been unusually disturbed one way or the other over the Bin Laden news. Unless there is an unexpected event attention will turn back to domestic issues; Friday is employment with non-farm private jobs expected to have increased by 200K with unemployment unchanged at 8.8%. Tim Geithner said yesterday he can keep the government from shutting down until August 2nd using what treasury always has in the past, accounting moves. With more time can Congress and the Administration find common ground on cutting spending and likely increase the debt ceiling?
No noticeable moves into treasuries on safety concerns after "The Killing"; no reaction in the equity markets either. In commodities gold is falling back but so far it isn't anything more than what could be expected after the recent spike; crude oil backing off on weaker economic forecasts and no outward fear of any additional disruptions in supply. Over $4.00 demand will decline for gasoline.
The 10 yr note, driver for mortgages is at its resistance at 3.25%, with employment on Friday rate markets may hold here or back up a little. Rates have fallen substantially over the past month, to expect that to continue employment will have to be weaker and equity markets suffer further selling.
Monday, May 2, 2011
Sunday, May 1, 2011
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