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Wednesday, May 4, 2011
Mortgage Rates
Anthony Hood
Equity Investment Capital
Office: 949-891-0067
Email: tony@equityinvestmentcapital.com
website: www.equityinvestmentcapital.com
Building Strong, Lasting Relationships; One Client at a Time.
Wednesday, May 04, 2011
Slightly weaker this morning in the bond and mortgage markets after the 10 yr hit 3.25% yesterday, more of a psychological level than technical but still a level that may be tested before it tries breaking lower. The outlook for lower rates remains in tact, however at these levels to work lower won't be an easy ride.
ADP reported its estimate for non-farm private jobs at 8:15 this morning; 179K jobs is their estimate, forecasts were for 200K. The increase in April is the lowest estimate from ADP this year and emphasizes employment gains are far below what is needed to get the economy growing. This recession is the worst in 60 years and recovery will take much longer than in past recessions. Not much of surprise given the collapsed housing sector and increasing numbers of job losses that will be permanent. Friday the official BLS employment data, estimates are still for +183K non-farm job growth and +200K non-farm private jobs with unemployment at 8.8% unchanged from March.
At 10:00 April ISM services sector index expected unchanged at 57.3 in March; it was lower at 52.8. The weaker services sector rallied the bond market and dropped equity indexes.
Treasury announced next week's quarterly refunding; $32B of 3 yr notes, $24B of 10 yr notes, and $16B of 30 yr bonds.
Boston Fed Pres. Rosengren, in a speech this morning made the case that interest rates will likely remain low for quite awhile: "So with significant slack in labor markets, stable inflation expectations, and core inflation well below our longer run target, there is currently no reason to slow the economy down with tighter monetary policy. Until we make more progress on both elements of the Federal Reserve's mandate-employment and inflation- the current, accommodative stance of monetary policy is appropriate." Rosengren is not a voter on the FOMC, he states the case against all the recent fears coming from markets that inflation is a worrying point. One more voice in the cacophony of opinions' presently being debated.
The weekly MBA mortgage applications out early this morning. The Market Composite Index increased 4.0% on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. The Refinance Index increased 6.0% from the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 0.3% from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index was 36.9% lower than the same week one year ago. The four week moving average for the seasonally adjusted Market Index is down 0.9%. The four week moving average is down 2.4% for the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index, while this average remained unchanged for the Refinance Index. The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 62.7% of total applications from 61.6% the previous week. This is the highest refinance share of the month. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity increased to 6.7% from 6.5% of total applications from the previous week. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased for the third consecutive week to 4.76% from 4.80%, with points decreasing to 0.76 from 1.00 (including the origination fee) for 80% loans. This is the lowest 30-year fixed contract rate since December 3, 2010. The average contract interest rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 3.96% from 4.03%, with points decreasing to 0.82 from 0.96 (including the origination fee) for 80% loans. This is the lowest 15-year fixed contract rate since November 26, 2010.
Anthony Hood
Equity Investment Capital
Office: 949-891-0067
Email: tony@equityinvestmentcapital.com
website: www.equityinvestmentcapital.com
Building Strong, Lasting Relationships; One Client at a Time.
Wednesday, May 04, 2011
Slightly weaker this morning in the bond and mortgage markets after the 10 yr hit 3.25% yesterday, more of a psychological level than technical but still a level that may be tested before it tries breaking lower. The outlook for lower rates remains in tact, however at these levels to work lower won't be an easy ride.
ADP reported its estimate for non-farm private jobs at 8:15 this morning; 179K jobs is their estimate, forecasts were for 200K. The increase in April is the lowest estimate from ADP this year and emphasizes employment gains are far below what is needed to get the economy growing. This recession is the worst in 60 years and recovery will take much longer than in past recessions. Not much of surprise given the collapsed housing sector and increasing numbers of job losses that will be permanent. Friday the official BLS employment data, estimates are still for +183K non-farm job growth and +200K non-farm private jobs with unemployment at 8.8% unchanged from March.
At 10:00 April ISM services sector index expected unchanged at 57.3 in March; it was lower at 52.8. The weaker services sector rallied the bond market and dropped equity indexes.
Treasury announced next week's quarterly refunding; $32B of 3 yr notes, $24B of 10 yr notes, and $16B of 30 yr bonds.
Boston Fed Pres. Rosengren, in a speech this morning made the case that interest rates will likely remain low for quite awhile: "So with significant slack in labor markets, stable inflation expectations, and core inflation well below our longer run target, there is currently no reason to slow the economy down with tighter monetary policy. Until we make more progress on both elements of the Federal Reserve's mandate-employment and inflation- the current, accommodative stance of monetary policy is appropriate." Rosengren is not a voter on the FOMC, he states the case against all the recent fears coming from markets that inflation is a worrying point. One more voice in the cacophony of opinions' presently being debated.
The weekly MBA mortgage applications out early this morning. The Market Composite Index increased 4.0% on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. The Refinance Index increased 6.0% from the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 0.3% from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index was 36.9% lower than the same week one year ago. The four week moving average for the seasonally adjusted Market Index is down 0.9%. The four week moving average is down 2.4% for the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index, while this average remained unchanged for the Refinance Index. The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 62.7% of total applications from 61.6% the previous week. This is the highest refinance share of the month. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity increased to 6.7% from 6.5% of total applications from the previous week. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased for the third consecutive week to 4.76% from 4.80%, with points decreasing to 0.76 from 1.00 (including the origination fee) for 80% loans. This is the lowest 30-year fixed contract rate since December 3, 2010. The average contract interest rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 3.96% from 4.03%, with points decreasing to 0.82 from 0.96 (including the origination fee) for 80% loans. This is the lowest 15-year fixed contract rate since November 26, 2010.
Tuesday, May 3, 2011
Mortgage Rates
Anthony Hood
Equity Investment Capital
Office: 949-891-0067
Email: tony@equityinvestmentcapital.com
website: www.equityinvestmentcapital.com
Building Strong, Lasting Relationships; One Client at a Time.
Tuesday, May 03, 2011
A better start this morning after a generally unchanged session yesterday. Markets working on the after impact (if any) frm the news Osama is dead. Yesterday the equity markets made an attempt to rally on relief but ended the session slightly weaker, the bond and mortgage markets saw no safe haven moves based on the view that Islamic terrorists would take revenge in the US with attacks. Crude oil ended lower as did gold; it appears that killing Bin Laden has had little impact. Had we gotten him seven yrs ago it may have had a different impact. After 10 yrs markets and the economy have moved on. High kudos to the Seals and intel agencies, and the President but markets are non-plused.
This morning crude oil started down $1.50 after falling $0.80 yesterday; gold yesterday down about $11.00 early this morning down another $13.00. Stock indexes early pointed to a weaker open. The 10 yr note at 9:00 was hitting open its key resistance at 3.25%.
Markets, whether interest rates, equities, oil or gold working on two issues. On one hand the economic outlook in the US is being ratcheted lower from early estimates this year, on the other concerns that terrorists will launch retaliatory attacks on the US Bin Laden had always encouraged hitting oil targets to cripple Europe and the US. So far there has been nothing coming from any terrorist cell and Bin Laden's family is advocating no retaliatory moves.
The Johnson Redbook retail sales report released this morning showed sales were up 5.5% from this week last year. The Goldman Sachs retail sales were up just 2.8% yr/yr. Easter buying is distorting both reports with Easter much later this yr than last.
At 9:30 the DJIA opened -8, the 10 yr note +5/32 at 3.26% -2 bp and mortgage prices up 3/32 (.09 bp).
At 10:00 March factory orders, expected up 1.9%, jumped 3.0% and Feb revised from -0.1% to +0.7%; ex transportation orders up 2.6%. Mar durable goods orders were revised to +2.9% frm +2.5%. Treasuries and mortgages slipped a couple of 32nds on the news.
So far markets have not been unusually disturbed one way or the other over the Bin Laden news. Unless there is an unexpected event attention will turn back to domestic issues; Friday is employment with non-farm private jobs expected to have increased by 200K with unemployment unchanged at 8.8%. Tim Geithner said yesterday he can keep the government from shutting down until August 2nd using what treasury always has in the past, accounting moves. With more time can Congress and the Administration find common ground on cutting spending and likely increase the debt ceiling?
No noticeable moves into treasuries on safety concerns after "The Killing"; no reaction in the equity markets either. In commodities gold is falling back but so far it isn't anything more than what could be expected after the recent spike; crude oil backing off on weaker economic forecasts and no outward fear of any additional disruptions in supply. Over $4.00 demand will decline for gasoline.
The 10 yr note, driver for mortgages is at its resistance at 3.25%, with employment on Friday rate markets may hold here or back up a little. Rates have fallen substantially over the past month, to expect that to continue employment will have to be weaker and equity markets suffer further selling.
Anthony Hood
Equity Investment Capital
Office: 949-891-0067
Email: tony@equityinvestmentcapital.com
website: www.equityinvestmentcapital.com
Building Strong, Lasting Relationships; One Client at a Time.
Tuesday, May 03, 2011
A better start this morning after a generally unchanged session yesterday. Markets working on the after impact (if any) frm the news Osama is dead. Yesterday the equity markets made an attempt to rally on relief but ended the session slightly weaker, the bond and mortgage markets saw no safe haven moves based on the view that Islamic terrorists would take revenge in the US with attacks. Crude oil ended lower as did gold; it appears that killing Bin Laden has had little impact. Had we gotten him seven yrs ago it may have had a different impact. After 10 yrs markets and the economy have moved on. High kudos to the Seals and intel agencies, and the President but markets are non-plused.
This morning crude oil started down $1.50 after falling $0.80 yesterday; gold yesterday down about $11.00 early this morning down another $13.00. Stock indexes early pointed to a weaker open. The 10 yr note at 9:00 was hitting open its key resistance at 3.25%.
Markets, whether interest rates, equities, oil or gold working on two issues. On one hand the economic outlook in the US is being ratcheted lower from early estimates this year, on the other concerns that terrorists will launch retaliatory attacks on the US Bin Laden had always encouraged hitting oil targets to cripple Europe and the US. So far there has been nothing coming from any terrorist cell and Bin Laden's family is advocating no retaliatory moves.
The Johnson Redbook retail sales report released this morning showed sales were up 5.5% from this week last year. The Goldman Sachs retail sales were up just 2.8% yr/yr. Easter buying is distorting both reports with Easter much later this yr than last.
At 9:30 the DJIA opened -8, the 10 yr note +5/32 at 3.26% -2 bp and mortgage prices up 3/32 (.09 bp).
At 10:00 March factory orders, expected up 1.9%, jumped 3.0% and Feb revised from -0.1% to +0.7%; ex transportation orders up 2.6%. Mar durable goods orders were revised to +2.9% frm +2.5%. Treasuries and mortgages slipped a couple of 32nds on the news.
So far markets have not been unusually disturbed one way or the other over the Bin Laden news. Unless there is an unexpected event attention will turn back to domestic issues; Friday is employment with non-farm private jobs expected to have increased by 200K with unemployment unchanged at 8.8%. Tim Geithner said yesterday he can keep the government from shutting down until August 2nd using what treasury always has in the past, accounting moves. With more time can Congress and the Administration find common ground on cutting spending and likely increase the debt ceiling?
No noticeable moves into treasuries on safety concerns after "The Killing"; no reaction in the equity markets either. In commodities gold is falling back but so far it isn't anything more than what could be expected after the recent spike; crude oil backing off on weaker economic forecasts and no outward fear of any additional disruptions in supply. Over $4.00 demand will decline for gasoline.
The 10 yr note, driver for mortgages is at its resistance at 3.25%, with employment on Friday rate markets may hold here or back up a little. Rates have fallen substantially over the past month, to expect that to continue employment will have to be weaker and equity markets suffer further selling.
Monday, May 2, 2011
Sunday, May 1, 2011
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